With less than ten days left until the Bitcoin halving, the demand-driven rebound has pushed Bitcoin back above $70,000. However, this level seems to have become a tough barrier for Bitcoin in this bull market, with rapid declines following multiple attempts to break through $70,000. According to Tradingview data, as of writing, Bitcoin has fallen below $69,000.

Bitcoin's rally in this bull market has largely relied on the ETF narrative, but Ethereum, which faces a similar narrative, has not shown strong performance, hovering around $3,500. Its price remains influenced by Bitcoin, falling below $3,500 again during this pullback.

On the other hand, Solana has carved out its own path with the meme narrative, but its old issue of network outages has resurfaced after ecosystem growth. On April 2, ORE was deployed for mining on Solana, attracting a large number of ORE miners to the network. On April 7, miners created over a million transactions in a single day, accounting for 14.3% of Solana's total network transactions. The surge in transactions led to a decline in transfer success rates, and SOL's price began to drop, falling below $170 as of writing.

Additionally, altcoins followed the broader market downturn. ARKM is currently priced at $1.933, down 20.69% in 24 hours; WIF is at $3.38, down 17.74%; ETHFI is at $5.47, down 17.05%; AEVO is at $2.61, down 15.81%.

As a result, the crypto market saw over $100 million in liquidations. According to Coinglass, the past 24 hours saw $291 million in liquidations, with $241 million from long positions and $49.53 million from short positions.

According to Farside Investors data, after a net outflow of approximately $223 million on April 8, yesterday saw a net outflow of $18.6 million. BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $128.7 million, FBTC saw a net inflow of $3 million, and Grayscale's GBTC had a net outflow of $154.9 million.

Will the Crypto Market Rise or Fall in April?

The flow of Bitcoin ETFs is a key indicator for market trends. Although there have been net outflows for two consecutive days, the outflow rate has slowed. Therefore, the community generally believes the crypto market will rally after April.

The halving is a confirmed positive catalyst. Last week, Laurent Benayoun, CEO of hedge fund Acheron Trading, stated that Bitcoin's price could rise by another 150% in this bull cycle, potentially reaching a peak of $180,000, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming supply reduction from the halving.

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also expressed optimism for April in a March 29 report, suggesting Bitcoin could continue its upward trend, rising 12% from $70,000 to $84,000.

However, there are dissenting views. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the market may weaken significantly in mid-April, with the real bull market starting in May.

In his latest blog post, Arthur Hayes: The Real Crypto Bull Market Will Begin in May, Hayes notes that U.S. tax payments in mid-April to early May will drain market liquidity, compounded by the Fed's ongoing balance sheet reduction, potentially leading to extreme weakness. However, starting May 1, as the Fed slows its balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury injects stimulus funds, a new crypto bull market could emerge.

Hayes points out that the Fed has indirectly supported the banking system by easing capital requirements, allowing banks to hold more Treasury bonds. The U.S. Treasury has also been issuing short-term bonds to absorb trillions in idle funds from the Fed's reverse repo facility. Both measures aim to boost market liquidity.

However, Hayes expects significant liquidity withdrawal around April 15 due to tax payments, alongside the Fed's ongoing $95 billion monthly balance sheet reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin's halving around April 20 could trigger short-term overselling, adding pressure to the market.

Hayes advises caution in April and aggressive positioning from May onward. He has closed profitable positions in MEW, SOL, and NMT, moving funds into Ethena's USDe stablecoin for staking. Hayes states that if he avoids losses in April, he will have ample resources to build crypto positions and capitalize on the bull market in May.