
The unadjusted U.S. CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, compared with an expected 3.4% and a previous 3.2%.
The recent bull market in U.S. stocks is mainly based on:
1. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, with officials even suggesting as many as six rate cuts totaling 150 basis points by 2024;
2. Strong U.S. employment data, indicating a healthy economy without recession;
3. The technological revolution driven by AIGC, which is expected to boost productivity.
The ideal scenario, of course, would be for employment data to gradually decline, inflation to be tamed, and the Federal Reserve to have enough leeway to cut rates—a view that has been mainstream for quite some time.
Now, employment data remains higher than expected, inflation isn't falling as anticipated, and the Federal Reserve's ladder for rate cuts has been pulled away.
If high interest rates are maintained without cuts after June, the real economy is likely to face trouble. In that case, will there still be a place for large models to shine?
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