National Bureau of Statistics: Data for January-March 2024

1. Commercial Housing Sales

1) From January to March, real estate investment totaled 2.2082 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The decline had narrowed to -9% last month but reversed downward again this month.

2) From January to March, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 226.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 19.4%, while sales revenue reached 2.1355 trillion yuan, a decline of 27.6%.

Compared with the previous month, the declines narrowed slightly, consistent with the trend in the sales data of the top 100 real estate companies released earlier by CRIC.

Overall, due to seasonal factors, March's real estate sales increased significantly month-on-month but still showed a substantial year-on-year decline. This is partly due to the high base effect from the concentrated home purchases after the lifting of pandemic restrictions last year and partly reflects the still sluggish homebuying sentiment.

3) From January to March, the average sales price was 9,421 yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, narrowing slightly from -9.0% last month.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' data on new home prices in 70 cities, 12 cities saw year-on-year price increases, indicating a stabilizing trend in new home prices.

However, data on second-hand home prices in 70 cities show that all cities experienced year-on-year price declines, with many seeing drops exceeding 5%. After the Spring Festival, most cities saw a noticeable rebound in second-hand home viewings and transactions, but this was accompanied by price declines, showing a trend of "volume up, price down."

4) Looking at the official sales data of specific real estate companies, except for Shimao Group, which has not yet released March sales data, the average prices of other companies from January to March mostly declined rather than rose.

5) At the end of March, the unsold area of commercial housing was 748.33 million square meters, up 15.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate slightly down from 15.9% last month.

In absolute terms, it also decreased slightly from 759.69 million square meters last month, marking the first decline in nearly half a year.

2. Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

From January to March, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.0327 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with the growth rate declining from 5.5% last month, showing a continued downward trend.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.4968 trillion yuan, up 3.9%, with automobile retail sales growing slightly above the average.

Additionally, national online retail sales reached 3.3082 trillion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the average.

3. CPI & PPI

March's CPI data for China and the U.S. presented a "tale of two extremes": China wanted to rise but didn't, while the U.S. wanted to fall but didn't.

China's March CPI was announced at 0.1, against an expected 0.4 and last month's 0.7, failing to rise as hoped.

February's CPI had surged to 0.7, influenced by seasonal factors related to the timing of the Lunar New Year (2022's was in January, 2023's in February), which typically boosts consumption. Looking at the combined January-February figures, this year's CPI was flat compared to last year, making March's 0.1 CPI normal—only the high February figure had raised expectations.

Breaking it down, six of the eight major categories rose while two fell. The largest-weighted category, food and tobacco, fell 1.4% year-on-year, dragging CPI down by about 0.40 percentage points. Pork prices, which had turned positive last month (up 0.2%), fell 2.4% year-on-year this month, reverting to a decline.

From January to March, China's CPI was flat year-on-year.

January-March PPI was -2.8%, slightly down from -2.7% last month, remaining low and continuing to pressure future CPI increases.

The U.S. March CPI was announced at 3.5, against an expected 3.4 and last month's 3.2, failing to fall as hoped.

Trend-wise, this marks the third consecutive monthly increase in 2024. While the first two months could be attributed to seasonal noise, March's CPI continued to climb and exceeded expectations, dashing hopes of a gradual decline and significantly reducing the likelihood of a first rate cut in June.

4. PMI

In March 2024, the manufacturing PMI was 50.8, crossing the expansion-contraction threshold for the first time in five months. The non-manufacturing PMI was 53, and the composite PMI was 52.7, both showing significant increases.

By company size, the PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 51.1%, 50.6%, and 50.3%, respectively, up 0.7, 1.5, and 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, all above the critical point. The manufacturing PMI turned positive, with small enterprises showing the most significant improvement in activity.

PMI was one of the brightest spots in March's data, but it's worth noting that PMI is a month-on-month metric, and the sharp rise in March was partly seasonal. A pullback is expected in April.

5. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Q1 2024 GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the annual target of 5.0%. This is a solid figure, as explained by experts from the National Bureau of Statistics: "The national economy got off to a good start in the first quarter."

GDP is primarily driven by three factors: investment, consumption, and net exports. Key data points released by the Bureau include:

1) Fixed asset investment from January to March totaled 10.0042 trillion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year.

2) Real estate investment from January to March was 2.2082 trillion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year.

3) Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to March were 12.0327 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year.

4) January-March CPI was flat year-on-year.

5) January-March net exports, denominated in RMB, totaled 1.30635 trillion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year from 1.40902 trillion yuan last year (the base may be adjusted, but the revised figure has not been released).

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