April 17, 2024 Morning Trading Strategy

Yesterday was another day with thousands of stocks hitting the 跌停 limit, and I can't help but sigh. The process of 探底 has been extremely brutal, with only 279 stocks rising and 5066 falling across the entire market, almost 接近全军覆没。

In such a market where 情绪全面崩溃， any analysis based on logic, technicals, or fundamentals becomes 无效， as 情绪崩溃 defies all reason.

All these market 表现 can be attributed to the release of the "Guo 九条" policy. It's not hard to see that the core of this policy boils down to two words:整顿。

When all the 利空 are exhausted，晴天 will come. The short term is 阵痛的， but the long-term 向好 process is 曲折， though the 最终结果 is 向上的。

Even the 村长 couldn't sit still after the market's recent slaughter. Last night, the 证监会 held an emergency meeting late at night, clarifying that this ST is not the same as that ST. The number of companies in the 沪深两市 that might face ST due to failing 分红 standards is only around 80.

The 村里 has already made its stance clear. Regardless, today we can 暂时 expect a 修复反弹. However, if the 反弹 fails to 突破 yesterday's 大阴线， everyone should still be cautious of a 下跌中继。

After all, the market 风格 has changed now, and everyone is 心灰意冷. Even the strongest body can't withstand 连续两次重病折腾。

Another piece of news is that external 评级机构 have downgraded our banks again. Today, the 银行板块 is likely to 砸盘. However, funds flowing out of 蓝筹股 could benefit 题材股反弹。

Overall, the 大盘 won't 大涨 today, but 题材股 may see a 普涨修复行情. That said, don’t set expectations too high, especially for those small-cap 题材股 with 垃圾业绩 and no 发展机遇. Use any 反弹机会 to 减亏 and 远离 them.

Now, let’s look at the 题材 and 个股：

1. China-concept stocks
News: Under the new 国九条 framework, which emphasizes 鼓励分红 and 加大绩差股退市力度， China-concept stocks and those with 超预期 Q1 or annual reports are gradually showing 独立行情. Tongwei Co., Ltd., with a Q1 预增 of 3.4x，一字涨停晋级 3 连板. Other stocks like 朗特智能，赣能股份，晨鸣纸业， and 荣泰健康 also 逆势涨停。

The【China-concept stocks】and【high-dividend】sectors still exhibit 局部抗跌 features. Multiple China-concept stocks, including 中公高科 (2 连板)，逆势涨停. China XD Electric, a China-concept 电网 stock with high 业绩 growth that 炸板 yesterday, still 逆势拉升 today，一度逼近涨停 and hitting a 近 4 年新高. This sector remains 值得关注， but future moves will likely be 趋势为主. Focus on 回踩低吸 and avoid 追涨。

2. IPOs/业绩预增
The new 国九条 was supposed to benefit IPOs and 业绩， but the 配套政策’s wording about potential ST for non-dividend-paying companies led to varied interpretations, sparking the 微盘股 sell-off.微盘股 became the 重灾区 these past two days, with 小股遭误伤。

As mentioned earlier, the 证监会 clarified post-market yesterday, emphasizing that the 新规 aims to help truly promising companies grow with capital market support and crack down on 炒壳-related 违法违规行为—not target "small-cap stocks."

The new 国九条 emphasizes investing in quality companies, not low-valuation ones, regardless of 市值大小。

PetroChina and banks were the 主角 after the 2004 国九条. In 2004, we needed large-scale national infrastructure; in 2014, we needed 大众创业创新 in the C-end; now, we need B-end 高质量发展 and advanced tech (e.g., AI, robotics).

Yesterday marked a 分水岭。垃圾股 will be gradually abandoned, while 业绩成长 stocks will be 追捧. We must adapt.

Two trends will emerge: one is 高分红， benefiting 普通散户; the other is 科技线， benefiting 前瞻风险资金。

Additionally, since March 15, A 股 IPO activity has frozen, with zero 受理 or 上会 for two months and nearly 100 companies 主动终止审核。

Q1 IPO 融资 fell 77% YoY, with 撤材料 hitting a new high (64 撤否 in Q1). With IPO 节奏放缓 and 监菅 tightening，近端优质次新 are seeing 估值催化效应。

April is 业绩披露期. Focus on sectors that 逆势抗跌 yesterday—these likely have the highest 主力资金关注度。