[New Stock Analysis] Mobvoi: AIGC turns profitable!
1. Basic Information
1.1 Company Profile
$MOBVOI(02438.HK), established in 2021, is an AI company focused on generative AI and voice interaction technologies. The company provides AIGC solutions, AI enterprise solutions, and smart device accessories.
1.2 IPO Information
2. Fundamental Analysis
2.1 Financial Data
Revenue: The company's revenue for 2021, 2022, and 2023 was RMB 398 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 507 million, respectively. While the revenue growth appears modest, the decline in smart hardware revenue was offset by the rapid rise of its AI software business.
Profitability: Gross profit for the same periods was RMB 149 million, RMB 336 million, and RMB 326 million, with gross margins of 37.4%, 67.2%, and 64.32%, respectively. However, pre-tax losses from continuing operations were RMB -180 million, RMB -684 million, and RMB -801 million. After adjustments, net profits were RMB -73 million, RMB 109 million, and RMB 18 million.
2.2 Industry Development
With advancements in computing infrastructure and AI algorithms, the AI software solutions market is expected to grow rapidly. According to CIC, China's AI software market grew from RMB 13.4 billion in 2018 to RMB 55.9 billion in 2022, with a CAGR of 42.8%. It is projected to reach RMB 209 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 30.2%.
2.3 Market Position
China's AI voice and NLP software market is fragmented. In 2022, Mobvoi ranked third in revenue (RMB 303 million) with a 1.4% market share.
2.4 Business Segments
The company operates in three segments:
(1) AIGC Solutions: Products include AI voice cloning (Magic Audio), AI writing (WonderAsk), and AI avatars (WonderAvatar). Revenue grew from RMB 6.8 million in 2021 to RMB 117.6 million in 2023 (CAGR: 315%).
(2) AI Enterprise Solutions: Custom AI solutions for automotive, finance, and TMT sectors. Revenue rose from RMB 52.7 million in 2021 to RMB 225.6 million in 2023 (CAGR: 106%), though 2023 saw a decline.
(3) Smart Devices: Wearables like smartwatches. Facing stiff competition, the company is shifting focus to AI.
3. Cornerstone & Sponsors
The IPO includes two cornerstone investors: Zhongguancun International (HKD 62.6 million) and Jingkai Juzhi (HKD 32.4 million), totaling HKD 95 million (28.7% of shares). Lock-up: 6 months.
4. Lottery Analysis
Hong Kong public offering: 8.457 million shares (8,457 lots). Oversubscribed 30x. Allotment: 30% clawback, 12,500 lots per group. Estimated 100% allocation for 1 lot.
5. IPO Rating
1. Strong fundamentals with explosive AI growth.
2. A pioneer in profitable AIGC.
3. Cornerstones cover 28.7%; Google is an early investor.
4. Perfect timing amid AI hype.
5. Valuation: HKD 5.5–6.1 billion (fair).
6. @二狗哥 is all in for luck!
Disclaimer:
1. This is not investment advice. Markets are volatile.
2. Invest prudently or consult professionals.
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