Top 10 Influencers in 2025The most feared signs are gradually emerging:$ASML(ASML.US) + TSMC.US +$Netflix(NFLX.US) + TSMC.US are all showing signs of earnings expectation adjustments. $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) even backstabbed $NVIDIA(NVDA.US). Hopefully, this isn't an audit issue this time. If the market faces a double whammy of interest rates and earnings, the short term could be terrifying. I've partially exited my NVDA position at 887 and 844, and fully exited at 825. Instead, I went heavy on BRK.B at 400 as a safe haven for a week to watch the earnings report, with a small hedge in SQQQ.
This should be the most dangerous earnings season I've seen in recent times. Currently, expectations for interest rate cuts have tightened significantly, even reaching a stage where rate hikes are uncertain; overall Nasdaq valuations are high, yet earnings reports keep dropping bombs. ASML is already bad enough, TSMC has lowered industry expectations, and Netflix's Q2 paid subscriber growth fell short of expectations while announcing it won't disclose membership numbers next year. The important thing is that Nasdaq valuations remain relatively high, mostly built on growth expectations. Next Thursday's quarterly data for $Microsoft(MSFT.US) likely won't hold many surprises - the key will be what forward-looking information they release, especially regarding Azure and Copilot expectations.
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