Likes ReceivedTSM、BTC、copper
1. Yesterday, TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) TSM released its earnings report (attached). During the U.S. night session, I commented immediately after the report came out. Both the performance and guidance exceeded expectations, and the stock rose during the night session. However, it couldn't resist the broader market pullback and turned negative during the day. The market came up with all sorts of reasons, from ASML's lithography machines to AAPL's orders and guidance details. The market always wants to attribute rises and falls to something.
But many things can't be explained by fundamentals. For example, a big earnings beat could be seen as a return to normal after the results, or as a surprise rally. Poor earnings could be interpreted as 'bad news is good news' or simply as a reason to sell.
But TSMC at $130 is already a bargain.
2. "BTC", $2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITX.US) Today (Beijing time), BTC dipped below 3000 points during the day but rebounded to $63,000 in pre-market trading. The 'halving' (2024.04.20) bullish logic for BTC is playing out. Why has BTC repeatedly tested $60,000 four times in a row? My strategy is to buy the dip every time it falls below $63,000.
Three articles on Bitcoin: Bitcoin ETF, Investment Value V = 10^(k*lg(t)-b)? Bitcoin (Part 2), Asset Attributes & Crypto-Equity InvestmentBitcoin Stock ETF, Crypto-Equity 'Second Derivative' Amplifies BTC Volatility. I think I've said enough about BTC and crypto-equities.
3. Copper: China's 2024 inflation target is 3%. As a manufacturing powerhouse, China still needs to rely on rising upstream resource prices, but much of the pricing power for commodities lies outside the country.
The U.S. is pushing for manufacturing reshoring. This year, the U.S. wants to lower inflation to 2%, but that may not be achievable, and inflation could rebound to 4%. The FOMC has delayed rate cuts, and a synchronized inventory restocking cycle between China and the U.S. may begin in the second half of the year. Non-ferrous metals, led by copper, are likely to continue rising.
Copper has two investment theses: one is its financial attribute, following gold; the other is its commodity attribute, following the inventory cycle. Dacheng Non-ferrous Metals Futures ETF: Primary and Secondary Investment Theses
For A-shares in 2024, commodities may offer more certainty than equities. Non-ferrous metals ETFs (underlying futures) and non-ferrous metals equity ETFs may still have room to perform. But equities are more volatile because they're a second derivative of demand—more focused on the sustainability of demand and the slope of the growth curve. If you're managing a FOF and want stability, diversification, and lower volatility, go with the former; if you're chasing returns and can handle volatility, choose the latter.
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