Likes ReceivedApril 22, 2024 Morning Trading Strategy: There will be another adjustment today.
The biggest news over the weekend was that the world's strongest AI leader, NVIDIA, suddenly plunged by 10%, while Super Micro Computer dropped even more sharply by 23%. This week, the entire AI sector will face pressure, especially those holding computing power stocks—they’re probably losing sleep. Fortunately, we haven’t touched this sector recently.
However, last night, InnoLight Technology released its Q1 report, showing a year-on-year increase of 303.84% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15%. Additionally, the company announced a high dividend distribution, which is undoubtedly positive for the stock and the industry as a whole. Can InnoLight’s good news offset NVIDIA’s bad news? It’s hard to say for now, but one thing is certain: there are opportunities in domestic CPO and memory chips.
Some joked, "Could this be the high-tech development of our A-shares dragging NVIDIA down?" Although the reason hasn’t been disclosed yet, this wave of decline in U.S. AI and tech stocks is undoubtedly related to "earnings" and "the Fed’s delayed rate cuts."
It’s not hard to see that this week’s accelerated decline in AI and tech stocks started with ASML’s earnings report. ASML, Europe’s highest-valued tech company, reported new orders far below expectations, dropping 61% quarter-on-quarter, triggering a continuous plunge of over 13%. The day after ASML’s report, TSMC also announced earnings below expectations, followed by a continuous drop of over 10%.
Does it feel like this April has a "black swan" waiting for us every week...? There’s no escaping it?!
In any case, there are seven trading days left in April, and we can expect many more "ghost stories" like "High-Tech Development." The worst-performing companies usually release their annual/quarterly reports in the last 2-3 days of the month. Those who’ve seen big gains in thematic stocks should be cautious.
If NVIDIA fails to recover tonight, its moving averages will form a bearish pattern, and U.S. stocks will likely continue to plummet.
Of course, our A-shares hit a new high last Thursday before pulling back, forming a "Fairy’s Finger" pattern that opens up room for further gains. Barring surprises, there will be another adjustment today, but the overall trend remains upward, with new highs likely. In short, 3,100 points will definitely not be this year’s peak.
Now, let’s look at thematic and stock opportunities:
1. Newly Listed Stocks
This week marks the start of the intensive release period for Q1 and annual reports, with 2,231 companies disclosing their annual reports. Poor-performing companies usually report last, so the risk of "landmines" is high.
Thus, late April is always the main battlefield for newly listed stocks. Additionally, the sector has policy tailwinds:
👉① Since the CSRC’s "3·15" series of announcements, A-share IPOs have entered a freeze, with zero acceptances or hearings for two consecutive months, and nearly 100 companies voluntarily withdrawing their applications.
👉② IPO fundraising in Q1 dropped 77% year-on-year, with withdrawals hitting a new record. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges saw 64 IPO withdrawals or rejections in Q1. With IPOs severely curtailed and regulatory scrutiny tightening, the slowdown in new listings benefits recently listed high-quality stocks, driving valuation catalysts.
This week, newly listed stocks will likely dominate, while other sectors should be avoided to prevent "bombs."
2. New Energy Vehicles
This sector saw major news over the weekend: in the first half of April, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 50% for the first time, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles. These two "firsts" mark a milestone in the development of new energy vehicles.
With the government’s deepening support for new energy policies, this penetration rate will continue to rise. Additionally, a major auto show is set to open in Beijing in late April or early May, and Tesla’s FSD may soon launch in China—both are significant catalysts for the auto industry.
If the low-altitude economy diverges today and tech stocks continue to adjust, some funds may flow into the auto sector, especially since several stocks in this space are already trending upward.
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