ATFX Forex: Manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone and the US will be released, with optimistic market expectations.
ATFX Forex Market: Today at 16:00, the market research firm Markit will release the preliminary Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April, with the previous value at 46.1 and the expected value at 46.6, indicating an anticipated increase of 0.5 percentage points. Historically, over the past three months, the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI has remained at relatively high levels, with a maximum of 46.6, a minimum of 46.1, and an average of 46.4. The current market expectation of 46.6 falls between the maximum and minimum values, close to the average, suggesting a high probability of meeting expectations.
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The chart below shows the hourly trend of EURUSD. Over the last 200 candlesticks, the market price has been in a sideways consolidation pattern, with signs of narrowing. Once the narrowing reaches its limit, a unilateral trend is likely to emerge. Considering that EURUSD is in a bearish trend on the daily chart and the US Dollar Index has shown strong performance recently, the probability of a downward breakout in the future is high. Returning to the hourly analysis, the current market price is between the upper and lower bands, closer to the upper band, suggesting a high probability of a pullback during the day.
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Today at 21:45, the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April will be released, with the previous value at 51.9 and the expected value at 52, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points. Historically, over the past two months, the Manufacturing PMI has remained at relatively high levels, with a maximum of 52.2, a minimum of 51.9, and an average of 52.05. For PMI data, 50 is the boom-bust line; values above 50 indicate manufacturing expansion, while values below indicate contraction. Over the past three months, the US PMI has consistently been above the boom-bust line, suggesting stable economic expansion. The market expects the latest value to rise slightly by 0.1 percentage points, aligning with historical trends and indicating a high probability of meeting expectations.
▲ATFX Chart
The chart below shows the hourly trend of the US Dollar Index. Due to the recently released strong German PMI data, the US Dollar Index has been suppressed by the strengthening Euro and has declined rapidly. From a technical perspective, the red support line below has intersected with earlier candlesticks, rendering the support level ineffective, and further declines are likely. The resistance level is the upper band marked "R" in the chart, currently around 106.3 points. Over the last 200 candlesticks, the market has shown a consolidation pattern. Even if the US Dollar Index faces short-term decline risks, there is a high probability of a mid-term rebound, eventually moving toward the black regression line.
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