DNF mobile game carries the middle-aged burden of Tencent Games

@新熵 Original

Author 丨 Sakura Editor 丨 Yiye

Tencent Games' "Four Great Classics"之一， the mobile version of "Dungeon & Fighter" (hereinafter referred to as DNF), is finally set to launch on May 21. At different times, DNF has held significant symbolic meaning for Tencent IEG and even the entire group.

When ByteDance shut down its gaming business, Zhaoxi Guangnian, its hit game "Crystal Core" was profitable, but no one dared to give it a high valuation precisely because of the looming threat from DNF of the same genre. Earlier this year, when Tencent's "Dream Star" and NetEase's "Eggy Party" were fiercely competing, DNF 手游 announced an event offering free Snowman Suits upon registration, which was interpreted by the industry as Tencent launching a blitzkrieg to end the Spring Festival battle with NetEase from another front.

DNF, which has repeatedly missed deadlines, is one of the few super IPs in Tencent's hands. It has remained popular for 16 years and still contributes cash flow to the PC 端游. In the past, even minor news about DNF 手游 could draw widespread industry attention, but this time, despite Tencent finally serving the main course, it has failed to create much of a stir.

In the financial report released by Tencent in March, the gaming business showed signs of fatigue with a lack of new hits. During the earnings call, Tencent management stated that while its two most important games, "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," maintain leading daily active users, their profitability has stagnated. Although Tencent Games has a large overall presence, these two titles remain the cornerstone of its revenue.

While facing internal slowdowns, Tencent Games is also challenged externally. The sudden rise of "Eggy Party" has, to some extent, shaken Tencent's strategy of going all-in on disruptive products. The longer it takes to develop a blockbuster, the greater the uncertainty becomes. The failure of "Dream Star" to replicate the success of past hits like the battle royale genre may indicate a decline in Tencent's ability to quickly replicate successful models.

Amid multiple challenges, Tencent Games is striking out in all directions. "Honor of Kings" is expanding overseas and adding multiple monetization paths; the launch of DNF is also expected to alleviate the pressure of growth during this transitional period. According to insiders, Tencent's two 王牌 studios, TiMi and 光子， are hiring to develop mobile games similar to "Palworld."

Tencent, now on the defensive, is accelerating its efforts to regain market recognition. But upon closer inspection, reliance on old paths remains an inescapable trait of Tencent.

On the Iron Throne, no one knows how long it will take for Tencent Games to overcome its midlife crisis. But under these challenges, Tencent seems to be running out of cards to play.

Dream Star's Failure, Tencent's Reaction

The biggest manifestation of Tencent Games' current 困境 lies in the failure of "Dream Star."

Before the battle began, even outsiders thought the worst-case scenario would be a draw with "Eggy Party." After all, Tencent not only spent approximately 1.4 billion in marketing 预算 across all platforms but also leveraged Douyin's 渠道 for the first time on a large scale. With user reach secured, "Dream Star" also targeted the more financially capable adult demographic in the party game segment, aiming for a massive revenue spike.

On the defensive side, NetEase only had a one-year head start in launch time.

Despite the 悬殊的资源投入， the outcome was far from expectations. "Dream Star" ended up in an 尴尬窘境， with high-cost user acquisition failing to translate into retention. The crucial winter vacation period, which should have been a breakthrough, also fell flat.

Data shows that "Dream Star" peak DAU was less than 1/3 of "Eggy Party," making the competition between the giants a foregone conclusion.

The failure has had lasting repercussions for Tencent. The industry began labeling Tencent with 更多 tags:不懂新渠道，不懂 UGC, losing 年轻 social 话语权， losing 复制能力. These doubts, coupled with bearish 二级市场 sentiment, have put significant pressure on Tencent.

Ma Huateng 甚至罕见地 internally criticized: "Over the past year, we've faced major challenges. New-generation gaming companies are emerging one after another, shifting from 玩法类 to 内容类， leaving us momentarily disoriented. Competitors keep releasing new hits, while we seem to have achieved nothing—even though we launched new products, they didn’t perform as well as expected."

Thus, making a comeback became the theme for Tencent Games in 2024. The 王牌 DNF 手游 finally arrived, albeit belatedly. But forced into this move, Tencent's anxiety is evident: is the old model still worth relying on?

What Is Tencent Afraid Of?

From a data perspective, even with "Eggy Party"'s success, its revenue pales in comparison to Tencent's flagship products. Industry statistics show that while NetEase's new titles are making waves, its 2023 top earners—"Eggy Party," "Justice Online Mobile," and the evergreen "Fantasy Westward Journey"—combined roughly match the revenue of just one of Tencent's "Peacekeeper Elite."

Clearly, Tencent's concern isn’t just about one hit.

Delving into "Eggy Party"'s most notable trait reveals its UGC community, a hot topic of discussion. On June 16, 2023, "Eggy Party" celebrated its 1st anniversary, climbing back to No. 3 on the iOS 畅销榜. According to producer Kwan, its success is inseparable from its UGC ecosystem. At the time，数据显示， "Eggy Party" had surpassed 1 million new maps weekly and 10 million creators.

UGC 最初以地图为载体， allowing 玩家 to innovate 玩法 using the base game's mechanics and assets.

As this model gained traction, Tencent's "Honor of Kings" introduced the World Editor in 2019 to engage users, but the high 难度 soon led to its 沉寂. Its 官网 remains stuck on a "coming soon" page.

Meanwhile, "Eggy Party"'s UGC 社区 withstood Tencent's full-force attack, showcasing its unique low user cost and high stickiness. More 致命 for Tencent is its inherent 社交属性。

NetEase embedded a game 内社交软件 called Eggshell 种草 in "Eggy Party," alongside a WeChat 小程序 version, linking in-game and external interactions. The 贴近用户上网状态的 design fosters strong 正反馈， boosting sharing 意愿 and retention.

From game to social, and back to game—NetEase has created a 商业闭环 while carving a path distinct from Tencent's.

Social-first, game-later was Tencent's long-held strategy. But this head-to-head battle 颠覆了 that logic, potentially marking a 拐点. If games can grow 独立社交 systems outside 熟人社交， Tencent's core 商业模式 may 动摇。

The Weight on DNF Mobile

In recent years, thanks to "Honor of Kings'" dominance, Tencent Games enjoyed robust 现金流. Its strategy revolved around high-investment + incremental innovation, with "market-consensus products" becoming ingrained in its DNA. The rise of "Genshin Impact" further cemented this approach.

However, prolonged development cycles breed uncertainty. Insiders note Tencent's current strategy focuses on 要么 3A 级手游/跨平台大作， 要么划时代新品. "Pre-2020 projects 大多达不到要求， leading to cancellations. Post-2020 projects won’t launch until 2024-2025, making success even harder."

With sky-high demands, lengthy timelines, and competitors closing in, Tencent has no choice but to play its final 王牌: DNF 手游。

Given DNF 端游's track record, Tencent has every reason to trust this former growth driver. In 2018, Korean 版权方 Neople disclosed that DNF surpassed $10 billion in global revenue since its China launch. By 2023, reports indicated cumulative revenue exceeded $20 billion.

DNF 手游 boasts a massive user base, strong monetization, and aligns perfectly with Tencent's playbook—a product 背负厚望。

But skepticism is growing. Insiders familiar with DNF 手游's testing phase express modest expectations, suggesting it may only slightly outperform Tencent's average MMOs, with uncertain potential to match "Moonlight Blade Mobile's" scale.

Objectively, MMOs—time-intensive，数值-driven—are becoming niche in today's climate. The key lies in reactivating AFK users. Despite 管理层重视 and heavy 资源投入， whether it can sustain 1 billion-level revenue remains unclear.

Tencent Games now stands at a critical juncture. On the surface, this is a must-win battle. If DNF 手游 underperforms, losing back-to-back would signal more than just a midlife crisis.