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Long-term Value InvestorMay direction: Investment preparation for stocks, gold and foreign exchange before "the East rises while the West declines" (Part 2) (May 3, 2024)
Foreword: Following the previous article sharing Ma Ba's views on the three major U.S. stock indices and the Hang Seng Index, this article will focus on individual stocks, gold, and the forex market. As with the previous article, the following are just Ma Ba's personal opinions. Please correct any mistakes.
Individual Stocks
Ma Ba's main focus is on Hong Kong stocks, so the research is concentrated there. Over the past few days, Ma Ba is almost certain that everyone has noticed $SENSETIME-W(00020.HK). Ma Ba has a special fondness for SenseTime and has held its shares for over a year, with additional purchases during this period. During today's pre-market session, it was seen at $1.8, and at market open, it was at $1.76. The latest price is $1.57. Even at the current price, SenseTime's stock has risen nearly 200% from its 52-week low of $0.58 nine days ago. The market attributes SenseTime's surge to its new A.I. model, but Ma Ba believes this is just an excuse. SenseTime's value has always been there, but negative news over the past year has suppressed its stock price. Ma Ba's friends remain skeptical about SenseTime, believing that the change in leadership limits its future growth. Ma Ba disagrees, stating that SenseTime's founder is not comparable to $Apple(AAPL.US)'s Steve Jobs. Without Steve Jobs, Apple did suffer, but Mr. Tang was only one of SenseTime's directors before his passing, and Dr. Xu Li, the company's helmsman, is also a co-founder. Therefore, Ma Ba believes the negative impact of Mr. Tang's passing on SenseTime has been exaggerated.
As for whether $SENSETIME-W(00020.HK) is worth investing in, Ma Ba's answer is yes, but this is not an encouragement to buy now. From a short-term perspective, after a rapid rise, SenseTime is due for a pullback until the next positive news emerges. At this stage, Ma Ba does not see any upcoming good news for SenseTime, so it's best to wait and see where the stock consolidates before making further decisions. (SenseTime's chart is not indicative, so no chart is provided.)
The second Hong Kong stock to discuss is $HKEX(00388.HK). Since its earnings report, HKEX's stock price has been rising steadily, reaching a high of $273.8 today and currently hovering around $270. As seen in the chart below, HKEX has fluctuated between $220 and $260 over the past few months. Now is the time to test its price. If it stabilizes above $270, it could potentially reach $300. Given the market conditions, if the Hang Seng Index aims to challenge 19,000 points, HKEX is likely to be one of the driving forces. Thus, HKEX and the Hang Seng Index are closely linked.
The third stock is $BABA-W(09988.HK). Alibaba has been a laggard in this round of the Hang Seng Index's rise. $TENCENT(00700.HK) has risen nearly 40% from its March low, $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) has risen nearly 50%, and $MEITUAN(03690.HK) has surged nearly 60%. Among the ATMX stocks, only Alibaba is significantly lagging, with a rise of only about 21% from its March low to today's high. Given its underperformance and Alibaba's upcoming earnings report on May 13/14, Ma Ba believes Alibaba's short-term prospects are promising. Referencing Tencent's 40% rise, Alibaba's stock could potentially reach $90 in the short term.
Aside from these three stocks, Ma Ba is also monitoring others, but due to space constraints, not all can be covered. If there are any stocks you'd like Ma Ba to research, feel free to leave a comment. Once enough stocks are gathered, another article will be written to discuss them.
Gold
Gold investment has undoubtedly been a market focus over the past month.
Gold is currently priced around $2,300 per ounce. Earlier this month, it peaked at $2,430. This rally started from $2,000 in late February, rising over 20% in two months—a sharp increase for a commodity. Currently, gold seems to be consolidating. The first key level to watch is whether it can hold above $2,280. If it breaks below, gold could retreat to $2,220.
Gold has always been one of Ma Ba's investment tools, and in the long run, Ma Ba is bullish on gold. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar index has fluctuated by about 1%, while gold has risen by 20%. This suggests that gold's rise is not due to a weaker dollar. Market analysts attribute gold's surge to geopolitical factors, but Ma Ba believes it's driven by supply and demand. Global conditions are constantly changing, and many experts warn of instability. Ma Ba thinks they have a point, which explains the growing demand for gold among nations and individual investors.
Forex Market
Finally, let's talk about the Japanese yen. As a key currency in the U.S. dollar index, the yen's decline after the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates in March was surprising.
The yen once reached 160 yen per U.S. dollar, after which reports suggested the Bank of Japan intervened. Ma Ba believes this intervention will only have a short-term and limited impact, at best keeping the yen around 150 yen per dollar. In the long run, unless the Bank of Japan raises interest rates further to pressure carry trade costs, the market will likely maintain a bearish view on the yen. Historically, the yen has traded at over 300 yen per dollar, so 150 is not particularly significant.
Conclusion
Ma Ba spent over two months compiling this information. There's much more to write, but due to space constraints, only a brief overview is provided. The article's title is "Investment Preparations for Stocks, Gold, and Forex Before the 'East Rises, West Falls' Era." Ma Ba believes the "East Rises, West Falls" trend has not yet fully materialized and is still brewing. Market sentiment often focuses on short-term trends, but these should only serve as supplements, not long-term strategies. Ma Ba expects May to be a volatile month and hopes to share these insights. If any points are inaccurate, please correct them.
Good luck to all.
(The above views are solely Ma Ba's opinions. The investment strategies mentioned may not suit everyone and should not be seen as invitations or intentions to buy or sell financial products. Stock prices can rise or fall, even becoming worthless. Trading stocks does not guarantee profits and may result in losses. Investors should exercise caution and consider these views as one of many factors in their decisions.)
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