伯言的投资思考
2024.05.06 07:47

All in on US stock MARA.

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$Mara(MARA.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US)

It seems like it's been two years since the last all-in. After the big non-farm payroll data came out last Friday, I went all-in on MARA.

MARA has also been my core holding for the past year or so, maintaining a position of around 30%. The advantages of MARA go without saying. As the leading miner, MARA holds a large amount of coins, has new machines, high computing power, and a battle-tested management team. Therefore, it has been the absolute leader in the mining industry over the years. However, this year, MARA has encountered various operational issues, leading to unstable efficiency, with the hash rate significantly lower than the peak in December last year. Moreover, there has been no sign of a complete solution for four months.

There were three main reasons for deciding to go all-in on Friday:

1. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the rate-cut trade resumed from a fundamental perspective, which is favorable for crypto stocks. Technically, BTC ended this adjustment and is heading towards new highs.

2. Over the past six months, MARA's performance has been significantly worse than other crypto stocks like CLSK. The main issue was unstable efficiency, but in recent weeks, MARA's efficiency has been steadily improving.

3. MARA announced that the hash rate will increase to 50, and there will be no need for another round of financing. This eliminates the biggest potential risk in the earnings report, making it worth betting on the earnings.

Based on MARA's financial plan and computing power, the reasonable long-term target price should be above $60.

Wish me luck~

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