Analysis of Yimai Sunshine and E-Search Tech IPOs: Another VAM trick with clawback?

Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant pullback on Friday, and the hot IPO market also saw a rally followed by a retreat.

AutoX, which employed a tactic of clawback, retreated from a peak gain of over 60% to 27%.
 

The first ChiNext IPO in nearly three years, dubbed the "King of Oversubscription," UBTECH HOLDINGS $UBOT HOLDING(08529.HK) doubled at the open but later retreated to HKD 0.64.

UBTECH was hard to get even one lot, and many IPO subscribers ended up empty-handed. Even those who got allocations barely made any profit given the high-open-low-close pattern.
 

Brother Cai didn’t get any allocation but picked up some in the gray market at around HKD 0.63.

Tomorrow (Monday) will be UBTECH’s official listing day. Based on a cost of HKD 0.63, pessimistically, it’s a small loss to exit; optimistically, there could be decent gains.
 

The high-open-low-close patterns of AutoX and UBTECH have cooled down the current IPO market, which Brother Cai thinks might not be a bad thing!
 

Today, let’s talk about two IPOs currently open for subscription, one of which, Aimei Sunshine, is another hot IPO, with oversubscription likely exceeding 100x!
 

1. Aimei Sunshine$RIMAG GROUP(02522.HK) 

Personally, Aimei Sunshine’s template feels like a carbon copy of EDA Group.

Back when EDA Group first opened for subscription, Brother Cai was interested, but never expected it to oversubscribe over 100x.
 

Aimei Sunshine is the same—Brother Cai was interested on the first day of subscription, and the subsequent script almost mirrored EDA Group, with margin financing data exploding from the second day.

The initial interest in EDA was due to its solid fundamentals, reasonable valuation, and strong cornerstone investors. Aimei Sunshine replicates these aspects almost perfectly.

Let’s break it down point by point.

① Solid Fundamentals and Reasonable Valuation
 

Aimei Sunshine is a leading specialized medical imaging group in China. By metrics like the number of imaging centers, equipment, registered imaging doctors, daily scans, and patient fees, it ranked first among third-party medical imaging center operators in China in 2023. By revenue from imaging center services in 2023, it ranked second.
 

The company is a leader in its niche with competitive advantages. China’s third-party medical imaging market grew from RMB 800 million in 2018 to RMB 2.9 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 29.0%, and is projected to reach RMB 18.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.7% from 2023 to 2030.

From these industry figures, we can see that third-party medical imaging is a sunrise industry, with growth projected at 30.7% in the coming years, showing acceleration in recent years.

As a niche leader, Aimei Sunshine’s performance is naturally strong.

Revenue CAGR is 25%.
 

In terms of profits, standard profits turned positive YoY in 2023.

But the key metric is adjusted profits, which also turned positive YoY in 2023.
 

2023 adjusted profits were RMB 60 million, RMB 25 million higher than standard profits.

Valuation-wise, Aimei Sunshine’s pricing is very reasonable!!!
 

Most IPOs this year have been priced at a premium, some even multiples higher, but Aimei Sunshine isn’t taking this 韭菜-cutting route.

Aimei Sunshine’s last funding round valued it at RMB 4.96 billion, or HKD 5.224 billion.

If Aimei Sunshine prices at the lower end of HKD 5.2 billion, it’s effectively a HKD 200 million discount—full of 诚意！
 

Even at the midpoint, it’s only HKD 5.59 billion, a slight 7.1% premium.

② Strong Sponsors and Cornerstone Investors
 

Sponsor CITIC Securities has a track record where only one of its sponsored IPOs flopped, while the rest rose. Oh, and AutoX, mentioned earlier, was also sponsored by CITIC.
 

This time, three cornerstone investors subscribed to 43% of the shares—a huge plus for an IPO with a market cap around HKD 5 billion!
 

In summary, Aimei Sunshine has strong fundamentals, reasonable valuation, and solid sponsors and cornerstones. But the biggest risk is overheating—we’ll analyze this in the subscription plan!

2. ESO Technology$EASOU TECH(02550.HK) 
 

For this type of IPO, no deep dive is needed—Brother Cai will keep it short and to the point!

This type of IPO has two traits: mediocre fundamentals + sky-high valuation.
 

For example, ESO Technology’s profits halved in 2023.
 

For example, ESO’s IPO PE, at the midpoint, is 83x—ridiculously expensive!
 

For such IPOs with mediocre fundamentals and crazy valuations, if you’ve been following Brother Cai’s IPO analyses, you’ll recognize the template.

The template is Quzi Group and Maifushi.

Both rose decently on debut.
 

Does that mean ESO Technology is a no-brainer?
 

We’ll analyze this in the subscription plan.
 

3. Subscription Plan

① Aimei Sunshine
 

Brother Cai wanted to subscribe to EDA Group but gave up after confirming it was oversubscribed over 100x.
 

For two years, the IPO market has had a "100x curse"!
 

The 100x curse means: IPOs oversubscribed 100x but under 1,000x will plunge on debut—without exception!

EDA rose on debut despite oversubscription over 100x, thanks to clawback tactics. Unless clawback is used, no IPO has broken the 100x curse.
 

For Aimei Sunshine, the logic is the same as EDA—it’s almost certain to oversubscribe over 100x.

So, it comes down to clawback—do you want to bet on it?

Many IPOs this year rallied due to clawback, but you can’t rely on luck every time!
 

Brother Cai’s advice: For IPOs oversubscribed 100x but under 1,000x, if you want to bet, go ahead but don’t go all-in. If you’re wrong, you’ll see cases like Tianjin Construction and Chumen Wensi, which plunged on debut.
 

If you bet big and lose, it’ll hurt.

For 保守派 like Brother Cai, just remember this:
 

Wait until an IPO breaks the 100x curse before subscribing. Brother Cai believes it’ll happen someday.

From the cornerstone and sponsor perspective, Aimei Sunshine might have a shot at breaking the curse. Brother Cai plans to subscribe for one lot in cash—no margin, no heavy bets—just to watch the show. Hope Aimei Sunshine breaks the curse!
 

Of course, if it rallies due to clawback, that doesn’t count!

② ESO Technology

For IPOs with mediocre fundamentals and crazy valuations, the 模板 is Quzi Group and Maifushi, which rose because they shared one trait: they were 冷门股， with public subscription under 15x.
 

So, for such stocks, oversubscription must stay under 15x—otherwise, clawback makes them risky.

ESO Technology is already certain to oversubscribe over 15x, so Brother Cai is skipping it unless margin financing pulls back below 15x!
  

That’s it for today’s analysis—hope it helps! I’m StockPro, an ordinary investor who loves reading financial reports, specializes in HK IPOs and investments across HK, US, and A-shares, with a long-term focus and short-term 辅助. See you next time!