6-14 Weak market VS Faith-driven market

Weak market: Hong Kong stocks wasted the previous day's gains on Friday, turning red with a decline. Although the drop wasn't significant—Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.97%, and tech index futures dropped 0.85%—the pattern destroyed the hard-earned advantage accumulated on Thursday, returning to meaningless sideways consolidation at the bottom. From a broader perspective, the Hang Seng Index's pullback from the continuous rally from 16,000 to 19,700 has already retraced half of its gains, with most of the accumulated risks already released. Thus, Hong Kong stocks are indeed at a 阶段性 bottom. On the other hand, various indicators and indices show 明显的底背离， suggesting limited room for further sharp declines. However, Hong Kong stocks lack strong and sustained rebounds, preventing them from breaking out of the bottom, resulting in this meaningless sideways consolidation.

On Friday night, dragged down by declines in European and U.S. markets during their opening hours, Hong Kong night futures followed suit, with both major index futures breaking downward. The Hang Seng Index fell below Wednesday's low to close at 17,794, while the tech index broke through the key support level of 3,860 to close at 3,673. For next week's 行情， I don't expect 连续大跌跳水 in Hong Kong stocks but rather 弱势震荡向下. The Hang Seng Index should stabilize near the major support level of 17,300, slowly consolidating at the bottom, while the tech index's major support is around 3,580. On Monday, the Hang Seng Index's support levels are at 17,700, 17,580, and 17,520, with resistance at 17,900, 18,050, and 18,100. The tech index's support levels are at 3,640 and 3,600, with resistance at 3,700 and 3,740. The support seems weak, while the resistance is quite strong.

As for 个股， among the 权重股， only Tencent, Meituan, and China Mobile offer a glimmer of hope. Other major 权重股 can only be described with one word: "trash." Instead, focus on sectors with remaining trends, such as 电力 and 半导体芯片。

Market with 信仰: Early Thursday, the U.S. market 探至 19,500 due to the Fed's hawkish remarks but V-shaped recovered by late night. On Friday pre-market, the Nasdaq 再次下探到 19,500 附近 before another V-shaped recovery, even hitting a new high of 19,699 during after-hours trading. That's 信仰。

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Arm(ARM.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US)

Since its late-May 回调到 20-day moving average, the Nasdaq has successfully formed a three-wave rally, with the third wave now trending along the MA5. However, rationality is crucial during 疯狂行情. This year's U.S. market 炒作主旋律 has been rate cuts and 半导体. Once these themes exhaust their 利好， the market will adjust—but clearly, that time hasn't come yet. For Monday, the Nasdaq's support is at 19,500; if broken, it could fall to 19,420. Otherwise, expect 震荡向上走势。

Among 半导体， Nvidia and Broadcom maintain their uptrend, while others have pulled back but retain their 趋势. Tesla has been in the news lately: Musk's compensation plan passed shareholder 投票， and at the annual meeting, he painted a 超级大饼 about the robot Optimus, claiming it could boost Tesla's 市值 to $20 trillion. However, Tesla's 股价 didn't 强势延续，高开碰到 120-day moving average on Thursday before 回落， and fell another 2.4% on Friday to around $178. As mentioned earlier, the 120-day moving average poses significant 压力. Without major 利好， this level may need 反复两周 to 突破. If successful, the upside could reach $203 and $216, offering decent 空间。

Finally, about Bitcoin: This week saw another significant 回调， dropping from last week's $70,000 to $66,000. COIN, which was 埋伏 earlier, failed to 突破 last week and may need 横盘一段时间 before another attempt, likely around early July. Alternatively, it could 横盘后假破位， dip to around $219, then V-shaped recover and 突破—a pattern that would better align with 均线散发。