6-28 Weekly market trends summary for Hong Kong, US and A-shares

The Hong Kong stock market remained lackluster on Friday, failing to rebound after Thursday's sharp decline. Major tech stocks generally saw slight declines, while traditional sectors like banks and oil closed higher, providing some support. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) performed slightly better than the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH), closing with a doji candlestick. Both indices saw minor pullbacks in the night session on Friday, with the HSI closing at 17556 and the HSTECH at 3539. This week, the Hong Kong market showed a slight downward breakout. The next step is to look for a strong rebound, followed by a consolidation above the new lows to form a potential bottom. For next week, the HSI has minor support at 17420, with major support around 17150. If the HSI can stabilize above 17150 and rebound to around 17200 without breaking lower, a bottom may form. Key resistance levels are at 17850 and 18000.

However, the Hong Kong market has never disappointed when it comes to creating extreme overbought or oversold conditions and emotional swings. Just like the rebound in May, it refuses to pull back when it should and now refuses to rebound when it should. That's just the nature of the Hong Kong market.

Looking at the weekly chart of the HSI, the current index movement bears some resemblance to the period from late 2022 to early 2023, albeit on a smaller scale. Will the market continue downward to form a double bottom (green line) on the weekly chart? Or will it stabilize above 17000 and rebound toward 197XX or even 20000 (red line)? Whether the market moves up or down, as long as we follow the trend, we can profit from either long or short positions. The worst scenario would be a prolonged sideways movement (blue line), which would make trading difficult for both bulls and bears.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) has pulled back over 4% in the past two months, dropping from 3100 in May to 2967 at Friday's close. The SSE continues to struggle around the psychological 3000 level, with the ChiNext, STAR Market, and small-cap stocks performing even worse, falling back to levels seen in February this year.

The small bullish candles on Wednesday and Friday for the SSE barely formed a minor double bottom on the daily chart. However, on Friday, the index touched the 10-day moving average before pulling back, with a relatively significant intraday decline. Next week, will the SSE rebound to 3000 (20-day moving average) or break below 2840 and continue downward? This warrants close observation.

Finally, the Nasdaq Composite surged during Friday's opening session, breaking above 20070 and reaching 20270 before pulling back in the latter half of the session to close at 19966, forming an M-top pattern on the daily chart. Monday's performance will be critical for the Nasdaq. If it can rebound and stabilize above 20060, the 5-day moving average (MA5) may cross above the 10-day moving average (MA10), paving the way for further gains. Otherwise, if both MA5 and MA10 turn downward by Tuesday, the index could drop to 19660.

Nvidia faces major resistance around $126 next week. If it fails to break above, support can be found at $118.6. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Tesla surged early on Friday before pulling back, hitting a high of $203 and then retracing to around $196 before rebounding to $198. The overall trend remains positive. Next week, it has a chance to rise toward $215, but this would require a relatively strong upward wave. Key support levels for Monday are at $197 and $196.1, with resistance at $203. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Coinbase saw a minor pullback on Friday night, but the rebound momentum remains intact. The first major resistance level is at $226 on Monday, while support at $220 must hold. If so, the rebound target could be the 20-day moving average at $233. $Coinbase(COIN.US)