An important exploration of L4 autonomous driving technology - Robotaxi
Produced by ZhiNeng Tech
Over the past decade,Robotaxi, as a key application of L4 high-level autonomous driving, has experienced ups and downs in its development. Concerns about its commercialization have been a major obstacle to industry progress.
However, with the joint catalysis of local policies and the industrial sector, Robotaxi has recently attracted widespread attention. This article will delve into the current status and future of the Robotaxi industry from four dimensions: technology, cost, ecosystem, and regulation.
01
The Ups and Downs and Potential of the Robotaxi Market
The development of the Robotaxi industry can be divided into two alternating cycles of inflated expectations and rational regression.
● First Cycle of Inflated Expectations (2015-2018):Following Google's launch of autonomous driving research in 2009, global interest in self-driving technology surged. Around 2015, Robotaxi startups emerged like mushrooms, attracting significant capital. However, due to difficulties in forming a commercial closed loop, industry investment activity sharply declined between 2019 and 2020.
● Second Cycle of Inflated Expectations (2021):As new automakers rolled out intelligent models, Robotaxi companies explored commercialization paths, and industry investment activity revived. However, due to unclear commercialization paths, the industry entered another period of rational regression from 2022 to 2023.
The U.S. and China lead global exploration in the Robotaxi field.In 2019, Google'sWaymolaunched a no-safety-driver test service in Phoenix, while Beijing allowed unmanned autonomous driving tests for the first time in 2020.
Currently, the U.S. and China lead global Robotaxi progress. Since 2023, policy relaxations in both countries have further solidified their top-tier positions in the Robotaxi field.
● U.S.:In 2023, California's Robotaxi road test mileage reached 5.75 million miles, up 13% year-on-year. Policy-wise, the California CPUC passed a resolution allowing Waymo and others to offer fully unmanned, round-the-clock Robotaxi paid services in San Francisco.
● China:In 2023, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou collectively logged 33.93 million kilometers of road tests, up 6% year-on-year. Multiple cities have allowed 24-hour unmanned taxi operations, with Shenzhen's Baoan district launching the first commercial unmanned Robotaxi service in a central urban area of a Tier 1 city.
02
Key Drivers of Robotaxi
Robotaxi algorithms primarily follow the traditional "modular + rule-driven" approach, which suffers from information loss and declining effectiveness in edge cases. Tesla's proposed end-to-end autonomous driving technology could address these shortcomings. End-to-end technology integrates perception, prediction, planning, and control into a single neural network, reducing information loss and enhancing Robotaxi's ability to handle complex road conditions.
The long-term sustainability of the Robotaxi industry depends on cost reduction, with specific paths including:
● Conversion to Pre-installation:Deep partnerships reduce conversion costs. For example, Baidu's RT6 collaboration with Jiangling saved significant conversion expenses.
● Declining Costs of LiDAR and Other Hardware:Baidu's RT6 increased LiDAR units to eight but significantly reduced per-unit costs, driving down overall sensor expenses.
● Eliminating Safety Drivers:As technology advances and pilots deepen, safety drivers are shifting from vehicles to the cloud, increasing the vehicle-to-driver ratio and further reducing per-vehicle safety costs.
The Robotaxi ecosystem comprises three key components: technology, vehicles, and platforms.
● Technology:Robotaxi autonomous driving technology companies are at the core, driving iterative upgrades of L4 autonomous driving algorithms.
● Vehicles:Automakers provide mass-produced vehicles for conversion and may participate more deeply in defining and producing Robotaxi models in the future.
● Platforms:Operating platforms are critical for Robotaxi commercialization, with mature platforms facilitating smoother commercial operations.
Tripartite collaboration models are becoming mainstream, with stakeholders forming tight partnerships through funding or strategic agreements.
In recent years, China has made positive progress in smart connected vehicle regulations, shifting from expanding road tests to promoting commercialization. Multiple cities have allowed 24-hour unmanned taxi operations, with Shenzhen's Baoan district issuing the first smart connected unmanned commercial pilot permit.
Policy-wise, cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan are advancing legislation to explore product access, commercial operations, data flows, liability division, and infrastructure development.
Objectively, current L4 autonomous driving technology has limited capability in edge cases, and large-scale commercialization may pose safety risks, undermining public trust. The high cost of converting single Robotaxi vehicles and massive R&D investments mean achieving breakeven will take time.
The Robotaxi ecosystem is still immature in its early stages, and tripartite collaboration models require time to explore. While policies are gradually relaxing, most pilot cities remain limited to small areas, often far from urban centers, making large-scale Robotaxi commercialization challenging.
Summary
As a key exploration of L4 autonomous driving technology, Robotaxi demonstrates immense market potential and broad application prospects. Despite commercialization challenges, continuous technological advancements, cost reductions, ecosystem improvements, and proactive policy guidance make the future of the Robotaxi industry promising.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
