Hearthstone's comeback is unlikely to become a legend.

In November 2022, Sensor Tower released the "2022 Global Top 20 Revenue Ranking for Card Battle Mobile Games." The report showed that "Hearthstone" ranked third in revenue that year, trailing only the classic IP "Yu-Gi-Oh! CROSS DUEL" and NetEase's dark horse "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened."

Sensor Tower also specifically noted that the primary markets for both "Hearthstone" and "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" were concentrated in mainland China.

Originally, if market conditions remained unchanged, with "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" potentially declining due to NetEase's operational missteps, "Hearthstone" had the potential to become the leader in the domestic card battle mobile game market and even challenge for the top spot in the global rankings, leveraging its strong domestic revenue.

However, shortly after the ranking was released, on November 17, 2022, "Blizzard China" suddenly announced on Weibo that due to the termination of its licensing agreement with NetEase on January 23, 2023, it would suspend most Blizzard game services in mainland China. This move immediately sparked strong dissatisfaction among players, significantly damaging the game's reputation.

This negative sentiment persisted until April 2024. Although NetEase and Blizzard announced that Blizzard games would soon return, players remained cautious. It wasn't until July, when Blizzard clarified the specific relaunch date and compensation measures for "Hearthstone" in China, that player attitudes began to shift.

On July 28, Blizzard officially announced that "Hearthstone" would relaunch in China on September 25, detailing the compensation and benefits policy. Three key points stood out.

1. All Chinese players (including new registrants) who log into "Hearthstone" on September 25 will receive all missed standard and golden cards from the Year of the Wolf for free—a total of 2,154 cards, including all 97 golden legendaries.

2. After the relaunch on September 25, completing tasks in the exclusive return event will grant players 60 card packs from the latest 2024 expansions "Whizbang's Workshop" and "Sights of Adventure," along with some cosmetic rewards.

3. Players can borrow a deck to try out after the relaunch, helping them quickly adapt to the current game environment.

Mouyu Jun previously analyzed that "Hearthstone," absent from the domestic market for so long, faces two core challenges in regaining market share.

First,how to address the dissatisfaction among Chinese "Hearthstone" players caused by the previous "betrayal" incident is an urgent issue. Criticism of "Hearthstone" has become the dominant narrative in many gaming communities.

Second, as a collectible card game, "Hearthstone" requires players to complete tasks or spend money to acquire cards for battles.

However, in "Hearthstone's" Standard mode, only cards from the current and previous year are allowed. Thus,for Chinese players forced to leave the game in early 2023, their return in September 2024 would leave them with no usable cards.

Ignoring the learning curve of new expansions, if Blizzard didn't offer compensation, players would need to spend at least hundreds of yuan to rebuild their card collections for Standard play—a significant barrier to their return.

Currently, the compensation measures for "Hearthstone" in China have clearly had a positive impact.

Compared to "World of Warcraft's" compensation plan, "Hearthstone's" generous "giveaways" have won over many players. In the comments sections of "Hearthstone" and Blizzard's official social media accounts, many players have praised the compensation policy.

However, some veteran players pointed out that "Hearthstone's" compensation measures are standard industry practice.Collectible card games are fundamentally different from MMOs like "World of Warcraft" because players need cards to start playing. After "Hearthstone" unilaterally disconnected from Chinese players in early 2023, failing to provide substantial card compensation would have been unreasonable.

"It's like going to an internet café and being charged extra for the mouse and keyboard. After nearly two years, returning players wouldn't even have a Standard deck to start the game."

Mouyu Jun noted that in the largest compensation—"2,154 cards from 2023"—the official specifically added a disclaimer: "To maintain fairness and the game environment, cards obtained for free cannot be disenchanted for full value (disenchanting will only yield 1 Dust)."

This means the biggest compensation, calculated from the player's return in September 2024, would only provide three months of usability in Standard, with no option to disenchant for new 2024 or 2025 cards—minimizing the impact on "Hearthstone's" future revenue.

Additionally, the third compensation rule—"deck trials"—reflects clever strategy.The trial 2024 decks will act as a "catfish" to stir up the card battle market, discouraging returning players from clinging to the 2023 card pool and encouraging spending.

In summary, "Hearthstone" has made a masterstroke with its compensation mechanism, not only reversing player sentiment but also minimizing future revenue impact.

However, after two years of market changes, the domestic card game landscape has shifted significantly, presenting new challenges for "Hearthstone."

The biggest challenge is that during "Hearthstone's" absence, the collectible card game model has declined. Games like "Teamfight Tactics" and "Night of the Full Moon," which require no card accumulation and are playable immediately, have become the new favorites in the card game market.

The core difference lies in the "progression" element of collectible card games like "Hearthstone," whereplayers must complete daily tasks or spend money to acquire cards for battles.

In contrast, games like "Teamfight Tactics" and "Night of the Full Moon" require no resource accumulation, with all players starting on equal footing.

This shift stems from multiple factors.

First,"Teamfight Tactics," "Night of the Full Moon," and "Hearthstone's" "Battlegrounds" mode were all inspired by "Dota Auto Chess," which initially offered all characters unlocked, selling only cosmetics while keeping the game free. This model was quickly adopted by subsequent games, establishing the free-to-play foundation for auto-chess-style games.

Second, collectible card games rely more on established IPs, such as Blizzard for "Hearthstone," or the world's top three TCGs—Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!, and the 2022 hit "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened"—all of which are backed by video games or anime, creating a fan-driven card collection logic.

Collectible card games exhibit more mature monetization, generating steady revenue through card sales and progression systems. In contrast, "Night of the Full Moon," while free-to-play, struggles with monetization, relying heavily on cosmetic sales. Player feedback indicates that since Season 3, the game has increasingly pushed skin sales, even promoting them aggressively in Douyin livestreams—a sign of mounting monetization pressure.

Nevertheless, for most players, card games that skip tedious daily tasks and offer fairer matches are more appealing.Given current player spending habits, aside from "Hearthstone," other collectible card games struggle to survive in China. This is evident from the failure of "Artifact," whose short lifespan and poor performance highlight the challenges collectible card games face today.

Thus, "Hearthstone's" biggest challenge upon returning to China is no longer player resentment or competition. Instead, as a flagship collectible card game, it must balance revenue with long-term sustainability.