What is the September curse? Will it really trigger a global stock market crash? Review from August 28 to September 3
The last review was a week ago. Starting next week, there will be two reviews per week: one on Monday/Tuesday and another on Wednesday/Thursday. I was planning to review yesterday afternoon, but there were too many things to arrange and I was busy thinking about trades, so I couldn't get to it. Their relationship seems to have improved, which is comforting for Old Sun.
To avoid being labeled as a clickbait (since the title was prepared yesterday afternoon when Nasdaq 100 futures fell below 19,500), I'll provide some evidence to prove I'm not just talking after the fact.
$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)
For now, Hong Kong stocks appear stronger than U.S. stocks, and we need to closely monitor whether this trend continues in the coming days. September is traditionally known as a global stock market crash month, with declines seen in Japan, the U.S., Hong Kong, etc., without exception. This is definitely something to be cautious about.
Do you know the major divergence between Hong Kong and U.S. stocks in this recent decline?
The answer lies in tech stocks. Tech stocks are the backbone of Hong Kong's market but have become prime short-selling targets in the U.S. $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)T & T(T.US)encent Holdings(700.HK) $Macys(M.US)acys(M.US)eituan-W(3690.HK) $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)libaba-W(9988.HK) $US Steel(X.US)iaomi Group-W(1810.HK) are all in a sideways range, currently at key support levels of 365/115/77/18, respectively. However, given the unclear market conditions, I'm not considering any position deployments for now. In terms of hedging, $FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK) is definitely better than $XI2CSOPHSTECH(07552.HK).
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) continues to lead semiconductor stocks lower, with $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)SML(ASML.US) $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)MD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) also declining. The next key level for $SentinelOne(S.US)uper Micro Computer(SMCI.US) is leading the AI stocks. The only regret yesterday was not deploying $Dominion Energy(D.US)irexion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares(SOXS.US) $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ.US) $Fiserv(FI.US)2X Short Nasdaq 100(7568.HK).
$Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)T & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) will be closely watched. $Pinduoduo(PDD.US) might see a small rebound to 109 in the short term, but long-term caution is still needed as it could drop again.
$Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)pple(AAPL.US)'s recent App Store policies are infuriating: a multinational company maximizing profits at the expense of small businesses by imposing various fees, including membership fees, on all downloadable software. While it's fair to seek profits ethically, when a company severely harms the interests of other stakeholders, it could signal a peak before decline. Be cautious—the stock may have already topped this year. If it closes below 215 again, consider short positions.
Reflection
I recently reread "The Speculator's Poker," and the final passage is brilliant:
George Soros once told his friend Byron Wien, a strategist at Morgan Stanley: "Byron, your problem is that you go to work every day and think you should do something every day. I don't. I only go to work on days when it makes sense, and I do something on those days. But you go to work every day and do something every day, not knowing which day is special."
Windmills wait for the wind; they don't chase it. The most successful traders are like calm windmills.
Deployment
$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.OSL) Many are worried about Bitcoin's recent performance. Technically, it's likely to remain volatile between 58,000 and 63,500, but September is historically Bitcoin's worst month, with significant statistical significance. A drop below 57,000 could test the key psychological level of 50,000. But without a pullback, how can there be a rebound? For hedging, experienced traders might short futures directly, but for those without the expertise or capital, $Fiserv(FI.US)2X Short Bitcoin(7376.HK) is the simplest and safest hedge.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Hong Kong stocks are weak, and with September's uncertainty, I won't consider long positions. Be especially cautious with: $Citigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)hina Mobile(941.HK) $PetroChina(857.HK) $Citigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)NOOC(883.HK). I'll watch for short opportunities after potential small rebounds. Chinese banks like $Citigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)hina Construction Bank(939.HK) $Citigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)hina Merchants Bank(3968.HK) $ICBC(1398.HK) are very risky, and $Citigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)itigroup(C.US)hina Railway Construction(1186.HK) has clearly turned.
Among the U.S. "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, besides $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)mazon(AMZN.US) $Macys(M.US)acys(M.US)icrosoft(MSFT.US) $Agilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)gilent Tech(A.US)lphabet(GOOGL.US) have all broken key levels. Tonight, I'll assess whether it's a good time to short.
September is turbulent for global markets. Good luck, and remember: better to miss an opportunity than take reckless risks.
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