产业深观
2024.10.01 01:17

Meituan, which continues to lose money, will eventually miss out on AI.

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Even against the backdrop of Meituan's record-high revenue, it's hard to mask its decline, as losses remain the company's dominant theme.

Although Wang Xing is unconcerned about Meituan's losses and intends to sustain them to capture market share, continuous losses may prevent Meituan from surviving the internet's dark period and even cause it to miss the emerging AI battlefield.

While more internet players shift their focus to AI, Meituan remains trapped in its old ways, stuck in traditional operations and making no progress in exploring new frontiers.

It's certain that if Wang Xing and Meituan fail to break free from the logic of loss-driven growth and merely repeat past strategies, they will not only lose their capital-fueled scale advantage but also vanish from the new competitive landscape.

For Meituan, which has yet to achieve real profitability, this is undeniably bad news.

As internet giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com tear down walls between them—especially as scale advantages become less critical—Meituan risks a major crisis if it remains obsessed with scale and traffic, ignoring the profound changes in the internet industry and broader market.

If we were to summarize and define this crisis, missing the AI wave would undoubtedly be the trigger.

I

Meituan's growth bears the hallmarks of a classic internet model.

That is, relying solely on capital and traffic, leveraging scale growth to dominate the market, and thereby exploiting users, merchants, and delivery riders on its platform.

Earlier issues like "delivery riders trapped in the system" and "dynamic pricing discrimination" are inevitable challenges of Meituan's outdated internet model.

While Meituan claims to optimize this model, unless it fundamentally overhauls its business logic—rather than applying superficial fixes—it will only solve existing problems temporarily while new ones keep emerging.

In short, addressing Meituan's issues with internet-era tactics won’t break its vicious cycle but will instead bring it full circle.

Some may argue that Meituan's revenue and financial reports look healthy, suggesting its business model works. But judging a company solely by revenue obscures its true condition.

In reality, Meituan faces the same struggles as all internet players: propping up growth and market position with endless losses.

Despite adjustments, Meituan's changes are skin-deep, failing to address core problems.

Predictably, tweaks within the old model will only plug one hole while opening another.

Short-term, Meituan may sustain revenue growth through minor adjustments. But once the gains from these tweaks dry up, it will face even greater challenges.

II

Meituan's persistent losses stem from its reliance on the classic internet model—failing to profit during the model's heyday or build a self-sustaining business loop from its scale.

As the internet model's 红利期 (红利期 =红利期) fades and peers abandon it, Meituan's stubborn adherence will lead it into a dead end.

This is evident in its absence from the AI arena.

A transformative shift is underway among internet players.

Whether Alibaba, Tencent, Pinduoduo, or ByteDance, all are focusing on AI to find new growth.

Alibaba is fully embracing AI, with every business line now AI-infused;

Tencent is leveraging AI to push deeper into the B2B market;

JD.com is pioneering an innovative e-commerce model—JD Procurement—powered by AI.

Analyzing why these players excel in AI reveals key reasons:

First, Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com established complete business models and closed loops during the internet's 红利期。

Though their financials have weakened post-红利期, they don’t rely on losses to maintain scale like Meituan but sustain growth through profits.

Clearly, Meituan hasn’t achieved this.

Second, these players' AI momentum comes from treating AI not as a superficial add-on but as a deep, industry-integrated foundation.

In other words, they aren’t using AI to prop up the old internet model but to dismantle it and build something entirely new.

This, too, is beyond Meituan's reach.

Wang Xing's organizational reforms, like Daniel Zhang's at Alibaba, offer only temporary relief without curing Meituan's underlying illness.

If this continues, Wang will lead Meituan into the same dead end.

Clearly, Meituan lacks the foundational conditions to embrace AI's 红利期。

Ultimately, its entrapment in the old internet model, scale obsession, and endless losses are the root causes.

III

Meituan has tried new ventures—live commerce, unmanned delivery, community group buying—but none brought transformative change.

The core issue: these attempts were just lifelines for the old model, not replacements.

Now, as AI surges, Meituan may explore it too.

But given its track record, Meituan will likely treat AI as another band-aid for its scale-and-efficiency model, not a tool for reinvention.

If AI becomes another live commerce or group buying, it may briefly boost valuation but will soon revert to being an internet-model appendage.

In Meituan's context, AI would be a marketing tag, a valuation prop—not a business model revolution.

This path will only lead to new crises.

As Meituan returns to losses and fails to escape the old model, it will miss the AI era just as it missed live commerce.

And when its capital-and-traffic scale advantage fades and AI dominates, belated AI efforts will backfire.

Conclusion

Perpetually losing money, Meituan has no bandwidth for the AI battlefield.

Even if it looks toward AI, its approach will remain internet-modeled—because its core business logic hasn’t changed.

Unless this shifts, Meituan will likely miss AI altogether.

Short-term, the impact is minimal. But once scale and traffic 红利期 vanish, Meituan will face dire straits.

Losses will persist until they become unsustainable—until Meituan vanishes from AI's playing field.$Alibaba(BABA.US)

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