【True Burning Finance】A-shares expected to usher in post-holiday opening gains; Brent crude oil breaks through $80 per barrel

China's A-share market is expected to see a "good start" on the first trading day after the "Golden Week", with investors focusing on the National Development and Reform Commission's incremental policy press conference at 10 a.m. Famous economist Jia Kang said that China may introduce a major fiscal stimulus, and the deficit ratio may be raised to a historical high.

Overnight Highlights

· The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down about 1% on Monday. The dollar held near a seven-week high as investors reassessed their positions after last week's strong U.S. jobs data, and concerns that Middle East tensions would escalate into a larger conflict drove demand for safe-haven assets. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 4% for the first time in more than two months, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, hitting a high of 4.033% since late July. Oil prices rose more than 3%, with Brent crude breaking above $80 a barrel for the first time since August, as the risk of a broader war in the Middle East increased and investors unwound a record bearish position accumulated last month. Gold prices fell as the dollar remained strong, with recent jobs data prompting investors to scale back expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut in November.

International News

· According to data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday, total consumer credit increased by $8.9 billion in August, growing slower than the previous month, constrained by the largest drop in credit card balances since March 2021.

· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he believes the economy is resilient, and while there are some signs of weakness in the labor market, it remains strong, and the Fed's rate cuts are aimed at maintaining this resilience.

· European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said inflation data suggests that price pressures are easing faster than expected, and the ECB needs to assess the acceleration in disinflation and slowing growth at next week's policy meeting.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the ECB must not declare victory over inflation too soon, as underlying price pressures remain too high.

· Charles Goodhart, a founding member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said the country's interest rates may stabilize at slightly above 4% in the longer term as deglobalization and the end of China's high population growth put upward pressure on inflation.

· Analysts at Jefferies said investors are overly optimistic about Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) latest and first AI-powered iPhone, and Apple's stock fell on Monday.

Greater China News

· China's A-share market is expected to see a "good start" on the first trading day after the "Golden Week", with investors focusing on the National Development and Reform Commission's incremental policy press conference at 10 a.m. Famous economist Jia Kang said that China may introduce a major fiscal stimulus, and the deficit ratio may be raised to a historical high.

· Bloomberg data shows that the five major U.S.-listed China stock ETFs attracted record inflows last week, and the number of open contracts for FTSE China A50 futures also hit a record high.

· Xu Zhong, vice president of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, wrote in an article that the central bank's two tools to support capital market development are not "central bank intervention in the market" and that the "red line" of bank credit funds not being allowed to enter the stock market illegally should be upheld.

· CCTV cited statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development as saying that in many places, the number of property viewings and visits, which reflect homebuying intentions, has risen sharply, with new home viewings in Beijing during the first three days of the holiday nearly doubling year-on-year and purchases tripling.

· Shanghai Securities News: Meituan (3690.HK) data shows that during China's National Day holiday, nationwide in-store consumption of life services increased by 41.2% year-on-year, and daily tourist spending rose nearly 70% year-on-year.

Commodities and Forex Markets

· The dollar held steady as traders scaled back bets on Fed rate cuts. The yen led gains among G-10 currencies, while the pound lagged.

· Rising tensions in the Middle East continued to drive a sharp rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude breaking above $80 to a six-week high, up nearly 13% this month, as investors worried that Iranian oil facilities could be a target of Israeli retaliation.

· Strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday prompted investors to reprice the Fed's rate-cut path, weighing on gold prices. Base metals were quiet on Monday, with nickel extending its gains.

Earnings and Economic Data Focus

· U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (expected: 92, previous: 91.2)

· U.S. August Trade Balance (in billions of dollars) (expected: -70.4, previous: -78.8)

Author: Terry Chow

Source: Goldhorse Capital Extramile