Understanding the current situation of the domestic auto market is actually quite simple—just look at the best-selling models from BYD and Li Auto. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is likely to further lower its sales expectations or reduce gross margin guidance for this quarter in the Chinese market, and the reason is straightforward: the product lines of the aforementioned two companies have already completed a pincer movement targeting the Model 3/Y from both above and below. Why not mention Xiaomi? Because Xiaomi's deliveries remain a major issue, and it won't be a disruptor within this year.

Unless FSD shows further potential for implementation this year—such as starting a full-scale rollout like Li Auto—Elon Musk is unlikely to be optimistic about the current high delivery expectations in China, even with interest-free policies.

Cars and smartphones are entirely different things. Influencers love to hype cars as the digital products of the new era, but they don’t care about what you might face in the stock market, workplace, or family life.