Horizon Robotics, fatten it up before slaughter! National allocation smashed from 30% to 2.76%, just to make the bell-ringing moment look better.

The super popular China Resources Beverage's domestic placement was oversubscribed by 24.47 times, with a 15% surge on its debut, bringing vitality to the market. $HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK) saw institutional scramble, with domestic placement also exceeding 13 times and a 25% surge in the grey market.

This stock again opened high and closed low! Domestic placement hedge funds dumped! From a 30% surge to just 2.76%! On the first day, it also opened 28% higher, basically continuing yesterday's grey market sentiment. After opening, it surged for only 5 minutes before starting to drop continuously, then stabilized until 11:18, after which it plunged, dropping from a 30% gain to just 2.76% by the close, with turnover nearing 2.3 billion.

Just the dumping wave at 11:20 alone wiped out 700 million. From the selling seats, it was mainly JP Morgan and CITIC's domestic placement seats leading the dump. No wonder the media hyped it so much before the listing—it was all about getting retail investors to buy at high prices. This stock only had a 15% clawback; without clawback, it would have been just 10%. Retail holdings weren’t much, so if the goal was to shake out retail investors, such heavy dumping wouldn’t make sense. Dropping from a 30% high to under 3% was likely hedge fund dumping.

As mentioned before, many new stocks perform well in the first 10 minutes after opening, even strongly. Because when the company lists and rings the bell, the media is taking the most photos, so the stock price usually doesn’t look too bad. After all, some listed company bosses care about face. If the stock price looks terrible, major shareholders would lose face, especially in the first 10 minutes when the media is snapping photos. If the stock price rises nicely, the big screen backdrop looks impressive too.

Carote and Horizon Robotics' opening trends were almost identical—both rose for 4 minutes before starting to drop! After the bell-ringing hype, they fizzled out, basically just looking good for the listing moment.

There’s a lot of hype in Horizon Robotics' comment section, especially from those who don’t understand the industry. For example, some claim Horizon is the leader in domestic smart driving chips—what about Huawei, which is far ahead? Huawei’s chips are self-developed, while Horizon’s chips only run in low-end models. The hype in the comments is clearly overblown.

Let’s look at Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s grey market performance:

Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK) opened at HKD 5.18 in the Phillip grey market, spiked to a high of HKD 5.21, then immediately fell to a low of HKD 4.80 before stabilizing and climbing slightly to close at HKD 5.02, up 25.81%.

Now let’s check Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s placement details!

Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK) priced at the upper limit of HKD 3.99 (range: HKD 3.73–3.99), raising HKD 5.407 billion with a total market cap of HKD 51.989 billion and an issuance ratio of 10.40%. Placement details: 28,115 subscribers, public placement oversubscribed by 33.83x. Since it exceeded 13x, the clawback ratio was 15.00%, with domestic placement oversubscribed by 13.81x. The one-lot win rate was 100.00%—subscribing for 1 lot guaranteed 1 lot. Meanwhile, 1,020 applied in the B group, including 3 top bids with allocation rates of 3.53%–3.90%.

Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s B group official disclosure showed 116 winners allocated 52,200 shares, 348 allocated 52,800 shares, 205 allocated 58,200 shares, 55 allocated 58,800 shares, 118 allocated 114,600 shares, 40 allocated 170,400 shares, 247 allocated 225,000 shares, 6 allocated 279,000 shares, 8 allocated 334,200 shares, 9 allocated 388,200 shares, 6 allocated 442,800 shares, 2 allocated 496,200 shares, 15 allocated 549,600 shares, 2 allocated 1,080,600 shares, and 3 top bids allocated 2,394,600 shares. One top bid is worth nearly HKD 10 million.

Below is the official disclosure of top bid winners in the B group:

2253**1 2,394,600

2633** 2,394,600

3301**19771*03004* 2,394,600

Now let’s check the domestic placement situation:

Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s international placement totaled 163 subscribers, oversubscribed by 13.81x. Hotter than Midea’s placement.

Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s domestic placement shares are very dispersed. The top 25 holders post-listing account for 15.28% of total issued shares. BG Fund is indeed on the placement list. Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK)’s stabilizer is Goldman Sachs, with a greenshoe of HKD 811 million—likely unused.

With China Resources performing so well on its debut and the market sentiment strong, Horizon’s grey market high opening was inevitable—it surged over 30% in the grey market! We mainly played Horizon through domestic placement funds, given even the investment banks were divided. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have performed like this on the first day. We heard hedge funds subscribed heavily, and now it seems they were right—they pumped it high first, then dumped to profit, fattening it before slaughtering. Retail investors who bought into the hype got wiped out. This is becoming a new play in HK IPOs. Horizon is like Carote—hedge funds seem coordinated, pumping first, then dumping from highs.

For new stocks, the strategy of selling at the opening auction suits most people. Not only did Xincheng do this with China Resources, they did it again with Horizon, being the first to place orders at the opening auction. Xincheng’s iron army is always the fastest to sell at the opening auction—they’re a disciplined group, always selling new stocks at the opening auction, whether up or down. The speed suggests orders were emailed the night before.

This strategy is solid—mechanically selling at the opening auction, emotion-free. Looking back now, they’re smart. For those unsure about new stocks, this strategy works. Sometimes the simplest methods are the most effective. They must have assessed that selling at the opening auction yields stable long-term returns. Worth learning.