Global Outlook and Deployment for the Last Week of October

It's been two weeks since I last saw you, and upon returning, I found that the little monster has finally learned to drink milk with both hands on his own, which is somewhat comforting to me as a father. This is what makes humans so remarkable: we always know how to keep improving, just like our trading. As long as we put in the effort to try and think carefully, we will eventually make progress.
The Hang Seng Index's movement continues to hover as predicted last week, with resistance above at 20,950 and support below at 19,970. This week, we need to be cautious about sudden fluctuations in external markets, mainly because Japan will announce the results of its cabinet election in the early hours of the 28th. Whether the ruling party can secure a majority of seats will play a key role in the Nikkei's performance. Current polls show that only if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its ally, Komeito, combine their seats will they have a chance to achieve a majority. If the two parties end up with fewer than half the seats combined, there is a high probability that the Nikkei will experience a sharp drop. At this point, we should watch whether the volatility in Hong Kong stocks remains relatively smaller than that of the Nikkei. Based on recent trends, this is highly likely to happen. In that case, the Nikkei could shift from minor fluctuations to major ones, while Hong Kong stocks could transition from major to minor fluctuations. This shift in volatility is crucial because it could lead to completely opposite strategic deployments.
Finally, a $BABA-W(9988.HK) denies the allegations, insisting it is merely a cost to avoid further litigation disruptions. Interestingly, U.S. investors $Alibaba(BABA.US) will receive compensation, while investors in other regions won't be so lucky. Since 2021, the stock price has fallen by more than 60%. Recently, there was a promising reversal trend, but due to the rapid short-term rise, another decline has occurred. After every parabolic rise, a high-volume drop on any given day can easily trigger a sharp short-term pullback (October 8). The most critical support level is at 92. If the closing price falls below this level on any day, the next real support will be around 85. The best-case scenario for the future is forming a rounded bottom before rebounding above 100. Otherwise, there is no real sign of an upward trend yet. $TENCENT(700.HK) continues to show sluggish movement with no catalysts in sight, expected to fluctuate between 436 and 410. $MEITUAN(3690.HK) failed to sustain Wednesday's rise on Thursday, so it is highly likely to enter another retracement phase. As long as the retracement doesn't break below 177, it remains normal behavior. $XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) hit a new yearly high on Friday but closed just below $POP MART(9992.HK) needs to be watched carefully as it may have reached the peak of its current uptrend. If the closing price falls below 60, it is highly likely to signal the end of the uptrend. $SMIC(981.HK)'s retracement remains reasonable unless it falls below 26.9, in which case a sharp drop is unlikely. $GEELY AUTO(175.HK) surged upward from $GCL TECH(3800.HK) being the clear leader. However, due to the recent excessive gains, we will observe the extent of the pullback before making further moves. With major positive news and the weekly chart transitioning from the first to the second phase, we will closely monitor the stock's performance.

The Nasdaq was poised to break above 20,800 on Friday but suddenly retreated from its highs. If Nasdaq futures fall below 20,400 again, we should be cautious about a real retracement phase $Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US). The Dow's performance is even worse, and if it falls below 41,800 again, it could be very dangerous.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) has indeed learned a lesson this time: when most analysts' earnings expectations are slightly pessimistic, any data reversal can trigger a sharp stock price surge. Tesla's earnings weren't particularly strong, but a two-point increase in gross margins led to earnings per share exceeding expectations, resulting in a revenge rally. At the same time, Elon Musk's comments about the Cyber Crab reignited investor enthusiasm and expectations. The weekly chart shows the first real breakout in three years, coupled with substantial trading volume, which could reverse the long-term downtrend. The major resistance is at 300. If this level holds steady after the U.S. presidential election, the next likely target is the all-time high of 414. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) continues to hover around the critical 140 to 142 range. As long as it holds above 135, the main scenario remains challenging new highs. However, if it closes below this level on any given day, caution is warranted. $Trump Media & Tech(DJT.US) $Phunware(PHUN.US) Trump-related stocks continue to rise, but this time, there is a clear divergence between opinion polls and online election betting results. The market is clearly using the latter as a reference. If Kamala Harris ends up winning, it will undoubtedly shock the market.

1. Trading Records
The oil short position is worth discussing in detail during reflection. Fortunately, we exited with minimal losses; otherwise, it could have been very dangerous, as geopolitical tensions escalated sharply over the weekend.
The Nikkei short position was closed almost at breakeven because, despite initially recording over 300 points in profits, a sudden sharp rebound triggered the raised exit point, resulting in a wash.

2. Reflection
A short position in oil was established around 70.4, based on the assumption that the previous decline was a rebound and that successful negotiations between Israel and Gaza could ease funding issues, leading to another drop in oil prices. However, oil suddenly broke through the key levels of 70.8 and 71, likely driven by war-related factors, prompting the closure of all short positions around 71 to 71.2. This experience has led to further reflection: unless all conditions are optimal, it's best to refrain from taking action. Unnecessary trades can erode capital over time. Remember the three most important traits of a wolf: focus, patience, and ferocity. The Wolf Trading System's key principle is to seize a clear and strong trend. Alternatively, had we focused on palladium instead of oil shorts, we might have achieved outsized returns.

3. Deployment
Bitcoin's recent movement has clearly defied conventional patterns. Previously, every challenge to the downtrend line would result in an immediate pullback, rather than lingering near the key level. However, since October 16, Bitcoin has remained firmly close to this downtrend line for a week. In technical terms, this represents strength—a phenomenon known as "power to resistance." When such a pattern emerges, we must closely monitor when a real breakout might occur. The downtrend line is now near 68,000. If a genuine breakout happens here, it would be one of the most significant breakthroughs in six months and must be seized. Key support levels are at 65,750, 65,000, 63,900, and 62,000. Resistance levels are at 69,500, 70,000, and 72,000. A successful breakout above 74,000 would directly challenge the all-time high. However, reports of a U.S. investigation into stablecoin "theater" caused Bitcoin to briefly test 65,000 over the weekend before rebounding sharply, indicating strong momentum. Keep an eye on related deployments $CAM BTC(3042.HK).
In the Hong Kong stock market, several stocks are worth noting, including some that haven't been in the spotlight for a while, such as $Vitasoy(345.HK). Due to PR incidents and the pandemic, sales have been disappointing in recent years. However, recent aggressive share purchases by a well-known beverage company, Yanghe, have driven the stock price up by 30%, simultaneously breaking the weekly downtrend line. For now, it remains on the watchlist, pending a retracement.
Meanwhile, biotech stocks have shown strong performance recently. The much-watched $WUXI BIO(2269.HK) has once again held above the critical $CAM HSBIOTECH(3069.HK) and its related holdings.