What is the U.S. election prediction tool - exit polls? How do they work?

The official voting day for the U.S. presidential election has begun, and the term "exit polls" will be frequently heard. Here is an excerpt from a popular science article by NBC:

On election day, as ballots are being counted and news organizations await results and campaign forecasts to report, exit polls serve as a key tool to gain early insights into who is voting and the motivations behind their choices.

Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters as they leave polling places. This is the only nationwide survey of known voters. It allows news organizations, researchers, and voters to understand the election situation when the results are announced.

Here’s how exit polls work, where they are conducted, and how NBC News will use the results of exit polls on election night and in the following days.

Who conducts exit polls?

Since 2003, Edison Research, a company specializing in collecting election data, has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). The NEP is a coalition of media networks including ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC News, which pools resources for collective vote counting and exit polling. NBC News independently analyzes and reports the results of exit polls.

What questions do exit polls ask?

Exit polls ask voters which candidate they support in the presidential election and other elections. However, they typically also include many other attitudes and questions, such as: "What is the most important issue for you in voting?" Another key part of exit polls is asking about voters' demographics, such as age, gender, race, and education level. These questions help illustrate how different groups vote and what they care about, and they are also used to weight the exit polls—ensuring that the exit polls accurately reflect the demographic makeup of voters and the election results.

Members of each news organization in the NEP jointly determine which states will conduct exit polls (in addition to the national exit poll) and collectively decide which questions to include in the national and state surveys. The exit poll questionnaire contains about 25 questions and takes approximately 5 minutes to complete.

How are exit polls conducted?

Exit polls are then conducted at randomly selected polling places nationwide and in states that have their own exit polls (which will be detailed later). On election day, at least one interviewer will be stationed at each polling place. This year, interviewers will be stationed at 600 polling places nationwide, and each interviewer will adhere to local regulations regarding where they can stand at the polling place. The interviews are self-administered, meaning respondents fill out the survey themselves. Interviewers then report their results by phone throughout the day and relay the results to news organizations.

What about state exit poll results?

In addition to the national exit poll covering voters nationwide, there are also exit polls specifically targeting states that are crucial for winning the presidential election or involve important lower-level elections such as the Senate or gubernatorial races. This year, NBC News will report exit poll results from Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin Exit polls will be conducted at 40 voting locations in each state.

How do exit polls reflect the growing proportion of early voters or mail-in voters?

Exit polls supplement on-site interviews conducted on election day by contacting early voters on the voter lists across all 50 states through telephone surveys, collecting interview data during the early in-person voting period.

This year, exit polls will interview at early voting locations in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. All voters in the state, whether they voted early or on election day, will be asked the same questions.

Are exit polls anonymous?

Yes. When voters are present in person, they receive a piece of paper and a pencil to fill out a paper questionnaire and answer anonymously. After completing it, they will place the folded questionnaire into a box, just like voting. Interviews conducted by phone do not retain any personal information about the voters who participated.

How many people were interviewed?

The national exit poll will include a total of approximately 20,000 interviews, including on-site interviews on election day, on-site interviews during early voting, and telephone interviews with other early voters, including those who voted by mail. Each state's exit poll in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin will have a sample of 1,500 to 2,500 respondents.

How does NBC use exit polls?

NBC News decision desk uses some exit poll data to help predict election outcomes. However, exit polls are primarily used as a reporting tool on election night.

This data provides viewers and readers with insights into voters' motivations, their views on the country, and their identities. It is the first national understanding of the state of voters and how they feel about the election, candidates, and their choices.

When do news organizations report which data?

Participants in NEP will not report any exit poll results before 5 PM Eastern Time on election day, and they will only report any exit poll results that could indicate campaign outcomes after all polling places in a state are scheduled to close. As election night progresses, field interviewers will report more exit poll results, and this data will be updated and re-weighted in real-time. $Trump Media & Tech(DJT.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)