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Part of the red wave is the surge in the US dollar, partly due to the ongoing fiscal expansion, with expectations that the new capital formation cycle may bring higher term premiums and fewer Fed rate cuts (if any). This chart shows the US dollar index rebounding from the lower end of the range to the upper end in a very short period, while expectations for further rate cuts have receded (measured by the spread between the 12th Federal Funds futures contract and the near-term contract).
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