[Investment Opportunity] Can gold stocks regain their upward momentum?

Recently, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated no rush to cut interest rates, the price of gold has experienced a certain degree of decline. This statement has sparked widespread market attention on the trend of gold prices.

1. Technical Analysis

1. COMEX Gold Price Trend

As of November 19, COMEX gold was trading around $2,628.10. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows gold standing above the midline of the downtrend but approaching a horizontal resistance zone. The KDJ indicator shows weak rebound momentum, and if it fails to accelerate upward further, there is a possibility of a secondary pullback. On the daily chart, key resistance is around $2,650. If this level is breached, the next support is at $2,600. A break below this level could signal a return to a downward consolidation phase.

2. Analysis of Gold Stocks' K-line Charts

Taking Hong Kong-listed gold stocks as an example, China Gold International (02099.HK) surged over 12% after gold prices ended a six-day losing streak. However, from the K-line perspective, gold stocks as a whole remain in a consolidation phase without forming a clear upward trend. Investors should monitor whether gold prices can stabilize and drive gold stocks out of the consolidation range.

2. Fundamental Analysis

1. Impact of Federal Reserve Policy

Powell's statement directly affected gold prices. The market had initially expected the Fed to cut interest rates, which would have boosted gold prices, but Powell's remarks dashed these expectations. However, in the long term, if U.S. economic data shows weakness, the Fed may still cut rates, providing support for gold prices.

2. Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, provide some safe-haven support for gold prices. However, such risk-off sentiment is often short-lived and unlikely to sustain a gold price rally. Investors should closely monitor changes in geopolitical situations and their impact on gold prices.

3. Central Bank Demand

Goldman Sachs recently stated that gold prices will rise to record levels next year, driven by central bank purchases and potential U.S. rate cuts. This forecast is based on increased central bank demand for gold. In the long term, central bank buying could become a key factor supporting gold price appreciation.

4. Trump Factor

Institutions such as Guotai Junan Securities and Dongguan Securities believe that Trump's potential return to office could introduce uncertainties related to inflation and credit factors, which would be long-term positives for gold. However, the specific impact of Trump's policies remains uncertain, and investors should remain cautious.

3. Stock Analysis

1. China Gold International (02099.HK)

As a representative gold stock in Hong Kong, China Gold International's share price is closely tied to gold price movements. Technically, the stock remains in a consolidation range, but its price surged after gold prices ended their losing streak. Investors should monitor gold price trends and whether the stock can break out of the consolidation range.

2. Shandong Gold (01787.HK)

Shandong Gold is another representative gold stock in Hong Kong. Its share price is also influenced by gold price movements. Technically, the stock is still in a consolidation phase. Investors should watch whether gold prices stabilize and drive the stock out of this range.

4. Conclusion and Outlook

Based on the above analysis, this article believes that gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, factors such as increased central bank demand and geopolitical risks could support further gold price appreciation. Therefore, investors should adopt a cautiously optimistic stance toward gold stocks. In the short term, focus on whether gold prices stabilize and drive gold stocks out of consolidation. In the medium to long term, monitor central bank demand, Trump's policies, and gold stocks' performance.

This article recommends that investors closely track gold price trends, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies when investing in gold stocks, while also analyzing individual stocks' technical and fundamental aspects. Investors should maintain a rational mindset and avoid blindly following trends or chasing rallies.

Conclusion: Bullish on gold stocks but maintain cautious optimism. $CHINAGOLDINTL(02099.HK)

Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own risk assessments and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. The market carries risks, and investments should be made prudently.