Bitcoin hits $100,000, making history!
After stabilizing above $90,000 last week, Bitcoin has been soaring this week, rising unilaterally along the 5-day moving average and hitting $100,000 in the afternoon of November 22, Beijing time!
A milestone for the crypto community, must screenshot to commemorate.
On the news front, the Trump administration's promised supportive policies for cryptocurrencies are gradually being fulfilled, with continuous positive news fueling Bitcoin's rise. In the short term, it's possible that more short positions being liquidated could become fuel for Bitcoin's continued rise, but short-term risks still need to be watched. Bitcoin's weekly deviation rate has also become significant next week, so pay attention to support levels near $97,500 and $94,000.
After breaking down sharply last Friday, the Nasdaq has rebounded continuously this week. Although the momentum isn't particularly strong, it's noticeable that during several trading sessions mid-week, whenever the index attempted to plunge and break through, it rebounded later. After a small bullish candle on Friday, the index has just reached the resistance of the MA10 near 20,870. Early next week, while continuing to face this resistance, we must also consider the issue of the overbought KDJ indicator on the larger-minute charts. The key support below is at 20,500. If it breaks below this level next week, we can consider looking at the MA60 near 20,300. Conversely, if the Nasdaq continues to consolidate without falling or stabilizes near 20,900, it could paint a different picture, with the potential to even rebound above 21,100.
Next, let's look at the Hong Kong stock market, which was weak and broke down last week and continued to underperform this week. After breaking below its consolidation range last week, the Hang Seng Index approached the MA60 but lacked the strength to rebound and was pushed down again by the MA10. On Friday, it broke further to near 19,200. The Hang Seng's performance on Friday was largely influenced by the A-share market, coupled with its own weak technicals, making the breakdown seem reasonable. Another factor is the previously mentioned market logic: Trump's election means the US dollar will likely remain strong for some time, so it's natural for RMB-denominated assets to weaken under a strong dollar.
The downtrend in the Hang Seng Index has now taken shape, with major support at 18,700, still 500 points away. To form a bottom, it first needs to rebound and stabilize above 19,400, but before that, it must challenge the resistance at 19,340. The Hang Seng Tech Index isn't much better, with support at 4,200 and resistance at 4,310 and 4,360. Currently, the bears clearly have the upper hand.
On Friday, most Hang Seng stocks fell, with only Xiaomi remaining in the green. However, it was dragged down by the broader market in the afternoon, closing with a long upper shadow. Its earnings report on Monday also failed to make waves. If it falls below the MA20 (around 27.8) again next week, the probability of a short-term downtrend increases significantly.
Tesla rebounded 3% near the MA10 last Friday and rose another 5% on Monday, forming a V-shaped rebound on the daily chart. After breaking above $350 on Friday, it consolidated, showing strong candlestick patterns. If it stabilizes at this level, the next targets are $380 and $400. Key support is at $336. If it falls back below this level, it may consolidate for some time. $Tesla(TSLA.US)
Nvidia started weakening after its earnings report. On Friday night, a bearish candle pierced through three moving averages. On Monday, it must rebound above $145 (also the biggest intraday resistance next Monday). Otherwise, starting Tuesday, both the MA5 and MA10 will turn downward, increasing the risk of another breakdown. Support levels are at $141 and $137. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
PLTR fell sharply on Monday but found support near the MA10 and rebounded. It has been consolidating in a small range near the MA10 over the past few days. After breaking out of this range on Friday, next week's focus is on the previous high resistance at $66. If all goes well, the MA5 will form a death cross with the MA10 before a golden cross emerges, signaling a second wave. Support is at Friday's low of $61. $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)
MSTR has been a divisive crypto stock this week. As its stock price hits new highs and it continues to raise funds to buy Bitcoin, the market has begun questioning whether its valuation is inflated (its market cap is already three times the value of its Bitcoin holdings). Notably, the famous short-selling firm Citron disclosed on Thursday that they hold short positions in MSTR as a hedge. That night, MSTR fell from +15% pre-market to -16% at the close. Short-term traders chasing the rally got hit hard. Citron's disclosure made it clear that this short position was a hedge, not a one-sided short attack on a single stock as in the past. I believe MSTR's stock price was simply too high, and this minor negative news triggered a pullback.
$Strategy(MSTR.US)
Next week's support levels are at $421, $397, and $380, with resistance at $440 and $453. The key is to watch the battle near $440, as the balance of power between bulls and bears here will significantly influence the subsequent trend. From a longer-term perspective, I remain bullish on its potential to return to highs near $500 as Bitcoin continues to rise.
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