US stock live trading-20241201: What to focus on in the last month

Summary:

This week, the S&P 500 rose 1.06%, while my actual portfolio value dropped 1.62%.

Year-to-date in 2024, the S&P 500 has risen 26.47%, while my actual portfolio value has increased by 30.93% (starting NAV was 1.26, current NAV is 1.65).

Trades:

Sold remaining Apple shares and bought an equivalent amount of NVIDIA.

Holdings:

Microsoft 10.8%, Google 21.0%, NVIDIA 7.7%, Petrobras 8.3%, Bitcoin ETF 17.8%, MSTR 18.1%, Other/Cash 8.2%.

Numbers are rounded, and positions below 1% are generally not recorded.

Review:

First, regarding trades: This was an internal reallocation within the "Magnificent 7" (M7), unrelated to any fundamental issues—just a dynamic rebalancing. Apple was temporarily more expensive than NVIDIA, and both stocks had less than 10% weightings, so I adjusted the allocation.

Although NVIDIA has been oversold recently, I chose to rebalance using similar stocks while still holding cash. Essentially, I still find the M7 (except Google) generally overpriced and hard to justify buying. Currently, my tech stock exposure in U.S. equities remains below 50%.

Next week marks the start of a new month—the final month of 2024. I’m not sure how the year-end performance will turn out, but at least so far, I’m very satisfied with the NAV curve over the past 11 months: minimal drawdowns, steady gains, low-frequency trading, and mostly staying idle with a decent holding experience.

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Other individual stock updates:

1. Tesla

Tesla appears to be preparing for the upcoming release of Full Self-Driving (FSD) V13. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently responded with a rocket emoji on social media platform X to a post by Tesla AI VP Ashok Elluswamy, who said "FSD V13 looks fire."

Several Tesla AI team members have also expressed excitement about FSD V13 on social media. According to NotATeslaApp, the level of enthusiasm and social media engagement from Tesla employees for this update is unprecedented, suggesting V13 could be a major milestone.

Once internal testing is complete, the update will roll out to early beta testers. If no issues arise, FSD V13 will gradually expand to the broader FSD fleet.

This is the closest thing to a tangible promise—if delivered, Tesla’s valuation metrics could see significant upgrades. However, I remain cautious.

For pure-belief investors, this might be an opportunity.

2. Apple

According to tech outlet MacRumors, the iPhone 17, expected in 2025, will introduce up to eight major innovations. These changes will redefine smartphone performance and design while delivering unprecedented user experiences.

First, the iPhone 17 Pro series will debut an aluminum casing, contrasting with the titanium used in the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro.

Performance-wise, the iPhone 17 Pro series will feature the new A19 Pro chip, manufactured using TSMC’s latest 3nm process (3rd gen), offering significant improvements in speed and efficiency. At least one iPhone 17 model will also use Apple’s in-house Wi-Fi 7 chip, boosting network speeds and stability. For cameras, all iPhone 17 models will upgrade to 24MP front-facing lenses (from 12MP in iPhone 16).

Lastly, the Dynamic Island on the iPhone 17 Pro Max will adopt a narrower design.

Honestly, I haven’t paid much attention to iPhone specs lately—performance is already overkill. Software and AI services are far more exciting now.

3. Microsoft

Reuters reports that the U.S. FTC has launched an antitrust investigation into Microsoft, focusing on cloud services and software licensing. Microsoft has yet to respond.

Separately, five major Canadian media companies sued OpenAI on Friday, alleging frequent copyright and terms-of-use violations.

This is the latest in a series of challenges for OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft. In a statement, Torstar, Postmedia, The Globe and Mail, Canadian Press, and CBC said OpenAI scraped their content without permission or compensation to train its products. "News serves the public interest. OpenAI exploiting others’ work for profit does not. It’s illegal."

Earlier this month, billionaire Elon Musk also sued OpenAI, accusing Microsoft and OpenAI of illegally monopolizing generative AI to stifle competition.

For giants like these, such lawsuits never end. Google’s legal battles recently spooked markets—will Microsoft’s case create a golden buying opportunity?

4. NVIDIA

It’s been nearly two years since generative AI went mainstream, yet transformative AGI breakthroughs remain elusive. This explains the recent pullback—some see it as a speculative bubble.

Reports note:

"Large language models don’t 'think' like humans or model reality as we do. But the risk of disappointment is high. We may soon enter an overly pessimistic phase—this has happened before in AI. People will fixate on flaws (hallucinations, deepfakes, misinformation) and lose faith in its potential."

Interest in AI could wane, reducing investment flows. That would be a shame—but also a major opportunity for long-term investors. We’ve seen this play out before.

During the dot-com bubble, over half of internet-related companies went bankrupt. Others, like Amazon and Apple, soared to historic valuations.

Personally, AI has vastly improved my world—I don’t see a bubble, just impatience for faster progress next year. I can’t wait for a smarter world.

Hence, I’ve bought NVIDIA for two straight weeks.

6. Crypto

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs are exploding, with November net inflows set to hit record highs. Per Bloomberg, 12 Bitcoin ETFs (including BlackRock and Fidelity) have attracted $6.2B this month, surpassing February’s $6B record.

Bitcoin recently retreated after nearing $100K. The FUD is back—I rarely discuss this, nor am I a true believer. Plus, it’s often censored on investing platforms. TLDR: My model puts Bitcoin’s fair value at $100K–150K; $200K if sentiment overheats. I’ll exit in the first range and ignore Bitcoin ETF moves below $100K.

Two key updates on MSTR:

First, CEO Michael Saylor will pitch Bitcoin to Microsoft’s board next month as a treasury asset. Note: Microsoft’s vote is on Dec 10. If approved, Microsoft would be the first mega-cap to allocate to Bitcoin publicly. Last month, Apple’s Tim Cook said they won’t—though he’s held Bitcoin privately for three years.

Second, MSTR looks set to join the Nasdaq 100, triggering a major index reshuffle (based on Nov 29 market caps, effective Dec 13 or 20). This would force passive funds to buy, lifting the stock.

The first scenario seems unlikely, but the second is almost certain.

7. Petrobras

OPEC+ postponed its online meeting on delaying output hikes to Dec 5. The group will discuss whether to maintain supply cuts after delaying a 180K bpd increase to January.

Earlier, OPEC+ reps said key members were debating extending the cuts for months amid global oversupply. On Tuesday, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman met Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak and Iraq’s PM to discuss market stability. Eight OPEC+ nations were set to gradually restore 2.2M bpd from January (originally October), but weak prices forced delays. On Wednesday, Saudi and Russian ministers also met Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister.

Officially, the delay was due to scheduling conflicts (some ministers will attend a GCC meeting in Kuwait on Dec 1). But historically, OPEC+ delays meetings to negotiate deals.

The alliance now faces a dilemma: extend cuts into 2025 or risk oversupply. The IEA says even extended cuts won’t prevent a surplus.

Endless debates only hurt oil stock holders. T-T

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Finally, this week’s valuation table (USD): Minor header tweaks to reduce ambiguity and repetitive Q&A.

Important Disclaimers (Must Read):

1. The buy/valuation/sell points above are derived from my proprietary models—no universal formula. They’re not absolute truths, just aids for gauging price levels.

2. If a point has two values, the lower is the floor and the higher the ceiling. Which to use depends on my discretion and understanding of the company—no fixed rules.

3. Blue/red highlights are personal reminders to watch stocks near buy/sell zones, not commitments to act.

4. Figures will adjust with price movements and my reassessments—don’t treat them as long-term references. Even Buffett makes mistakes; I’m no exception.

5. This table is for my personal tracking—not investment advice. Don’t ask me what to buy; manage your own money.

6. Fellow holders are welcome to critique my takes in comments—let’s learn and profit together.$Strategy(MSTR.US) $Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)