【True Insight Hong Kong Stocks Experts】Lai Ka Chung: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook

Unknowingly, it's already Christmas, which also means that 2024 is coming to an end and a new year is approaching. This year has been a bull market full of opportunities for both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Although few would consider the Hong Kong stock market a bull market, it at least experienced two minor rallies, and I believe most of you have gained something. However, even if you didn't gain or suffered losses, you should treat it as a learning opportunity, carefully review the mistakes made and the opportunities missed, and prepare for the next year.

With this in mind, I will recap some major events and opportunities of 2024 and share my outlook for the coming year.

Let's start with the beginning of 2024. In January, the first notable event was the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF $Citigroup(C.US)ryptocurrency Spot ETF (LIST22873.HK). On the day of its listing, the market immediately provided a short-term shorting opportunity with "Sell The News," and Bitcoin subsequently dropped from a high of $49,000 to $38,500 within two weeks. However, this event laid the foundation for this year's cryptocurrency boom.

Also in January, this year's two stock kings emerged: NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), both breaking out of long-term consolidation ranges and soaring thereafter, reigniting the AI sector frenzy. If you're a trend investor, these two stocks were textbook breakout trades—catching the entry point wasn't difficult, but the challenge was whether you did your homework to spot their breakouts and held your position afterward. In fact, as long as you didn't think you were smarter than the moving averages, you were fine. NVIDIA first fell below its 20-day moving average three months later, while Super Micro Computer did so two months later. If you sold both on the first day they fell below their 20-day moving averages, your gains would have been 80% and 170%, respectively.

Apart from these two stock kings, the Nikkei Index, which many discussed this year, also began breaking out in January, with a pattern very similar to the two stock kings.

In February, while NVIDIA continued its surge, the market also started focusing on its related concept stocks, such as SoundHound AI (SOUN.US) and Arm Holding (ARM.US), which saw significant gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin began to recover and broke above the peak level seen on the day of its spot ETF listing. This year's other stock king, MicroStrategy (MSTR), emerged at that time, proving itself as the best Bitcoin concept stock, far outperforming others, especially mining stocks like MARA and RIOT, which had shone in the previous bull market. This was the clearest signal of which Bitcoin concept stock to focus on in this bull market.

In early March, weak U.S. economic data boosted market expectations for rate cuts within the year, leading to strong rallies in gold and other commodities. After the Fed's late-March rate meeting, the dot plot showed that Fed officials still expected three rate cuts this year, reaffirming Chair Powell's earlier statement that "the current policy rate may have peaked, and monetary policy easing will begin at some point this year." The Fed's dovish tone set the market's expectation for rate cuts this year, despite repeated hawkish and dovish rhetoric before the actual rate cut in September. In March, I also mentioned Wan Guo International Mining Group (03939.HK)$WANGUO GOLD GP(03939.HK), which was a perfect entry point amid gold's strong rally.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 10 basis points, from -0.1% to 0%, to a range of 0% to 0.1%, marking the end of its negative interest rate era.

In April, the yen didn't rise due to the rate hike but continued to fall. The main reason was the lack of clear follow-up rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, coupled with the U.S. dollar's sustained strength. Even with the rate hike to 0.1%, the yen's carry trade remained highly attractive.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving. Although Bitcoin didn't react immediately, hindsight shows this halving was key to Bitcoin's surge past $100,000 this year.

Additionally, from late April to mid-May, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a minor rally, with the Hang Seng Index rising from a low of 16,000 to a high of 19,700. This was the first time this year the index challenged the 20,000 level. In late April, I also recommended keeping an eye on ATMXJ to capture this unexpected rally.

Apart from the Hong Kong market rebound, May also marked the return of the legendary meme stock GameStop (GME). On May 13, Roaring Kitty, the spiritual leader of the GME retail army, posted on X for the first time since 2021—a picture of a man shifting from lounging to sitting up seriously to play games. This triggered a 74% surge in GME's stock price to $30.45 on May 13, followed by a peak of $64.8 on May 14. During this period, meme stocks became the market's focus, and U.S.-listed Chinese EV company Faraday Future (FFIE), which had faced delisting risks, also surged nearly 100-fold from its lowest point. This proved that when blind frenzy takes over, retail investors can push stocks to absurd levels.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA, another favorite among retail investors, broke out of another consolidation range in May, starting another upward wave similar to its January breakout. Missing this again would only prove you hadn't learned your lesson.

In June, Apple's WWDC 2024 kicked off, where CEO Tim Cook unveiled Apple's powerful personal intelligence system, "Apple Intelligence," and its integration with ChatGPT across platforms. The market speculated this could trigger a massive upgrade cycle. Driven by the news, Apple (AAPL.US) and its supply chain stocks rallied. At the time, I also mentioned one of the supply chain companies, Hong Teng Precision (06088.HK), which performed well.

July might have been a turning point for this year's stock market—or even human history. At 6:11 PM EDT on July 13, 2024, then-presidential candidate Trump was shot at a campaign rally by Thomas Matthew Crooks. Fortunatel