《Nobody Knows (Yet Again)》

The memo "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)" (Source1 ...) expresses Howard Marks' key views on investment and market uncertainty. Here are its core contents:

•The future is unknowable and cannot be accurately analyzed1 .... Marks believes that "analyzing the future" is itself a contradiction because the future has not yet occurred and is influenced by countless complex, unquantifiable, and unpredictable factors 2. Especially during turbulent times like the 2008 global financial crisis, the early stages of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the current (2025) large-scale tariffs, no one can truly know what the future holds 1 ....

•Investment decisions must be made in the absence of certainty and confidence3. Particularly at market turning points and during periods of extreme volatility, certainty is completely absent in the investment field 3. Insisting on certainty or confidence as a prerequisite for action will lead to missed opportunities 3.

•Not taking action is also a form of action and needs to be critically examined3. Common investor sayings like "don't try to catch a falling knife" and "wait for the dust to settle" cannot be the sole justification for inaction 3.

•During crises, no one is truly an expert3. Even economists' analytical tools and theories cannot provide definitive conclusions in unprecedented events like large-scale trade wars, as modern history has not seen trade wars of this scale, leaving theories untested 3.

•When markets fall, people often sell out of panic, but this is merely a discount sale4. While no one knows whether prices will fall further or if current prices are reasonable, market declines do not necessarily mean increased risk—they may present buying opportunities 4. This view aligns with the analysis in Source 5, which suggests that after consecutive sharp declines, stock markets are highly likely to rebound.

•Every crisis and market turmoil has its uniqueness3 .... For example, the 2025 tariff-induced market decline differs from past declines caused by policy or inflation because it was triggered by deliberate human intervention 5.

•Predicting the future is not enough; it's more important to have a clear understanding of the probability of the prediction being correct3. In the current environment full of unknowns, the accuracy of predictions will be lower than usual 3.

•In the face of uncertainty, the most logical approach is rational analysis and moving in the most likely direction, even without absolute certainty3. After the 2008 financial crisis erupted, despite knowing nothing about the future, Marks concluded that funds should be invested in heavily discounted financial assets 1 ....

•The Trump administration is characterized by "uncertainty"3. President Trump's thinking and policies, especially on trade and tariffs, are often unpredictable, and the market did not anticipate the scale of tariff increases 3.

•Even if the actions of one country (e.g., the U.S.) are understood, the reactions of other countries and the ultimate impact remain unknown6.

In summary, Howard Marks emphasizes in "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)" investment principles such as embracing uncertainty, making rational decisions with incomplete information, and recognizing the limitations of historical experience, especially in volatile environments like the Trump administration and U.S.-China trade relations.