Nvidia's stock price plunged more than 6%. Will the H20 be discontinued in China?

After the U.S. stock market closed on April 15, NVIDIA's stock price suddenly plunged more than 6%, wiping out approximately 1.3 trillion yuan in market value. This sharp volatility stemmed from a document disclosed by NVIDIA—due to the latest U.S. government export restrictions, NVIDIA will record a special charge of up to $5.5 billion this fiscal quarter. This 'chip earthquake' triggered by geopolitics not only reflects the fragility of the global semiconductor industry but may also become a watershed in the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

The trigger was a notice issued by the U.S. government on April 9: NVIDIA must apply for an indefinitely valid export license when exporting H20 chips and equivalent products to China and other countries. This 'customized' AI chip for the Chinese market was originally NVIDIA's 'stopgap measure' to cope with the 2022 export ban, barely meeting U.S. technical red lines by reducing computing density and interconnect bandwidth. However, the U.S. government is clearly no longer satisfied with such technical compromises, as the new rules directly cut off the commercialization path for H20 chips. As NVIDIA's 'cash cow' in China, the H20 contributed $12-15 billion in revenue last year, accounting for 85% of NVIDIA's total sales in China. The sudden ban forced NVIDIA to record a $5.5 billion loss, covering not only high-value inventory backlogs but also procurement order 违约赔偿及供应链重组费用。

The strategic importance of the Chinese market makes this crisis particularly 棘手. Although China's revenue share in fiscal 2025 has dropped from a peak of 26% to 13%, the H20 chip supports NVIDIA's 生态壁垒 in the global AI race. Tencent, ByteDance, and other Chinese tech giants'突击采购的 $16 billion orders this quarter have yet to be delivered, and if the policy does not reverse, these orders may vanish. The deeper impact lies in 国产芯片 like Huawei's Ascend 910B gaining market share with better cost-performance ratios. If NVIDIA 彻底失去中国市场， its technological 迭代的速度和规模效应 will suffer heavy blows.

The shockwaves of this tariff war have spread across the entire semiconductor industry. AMD fell 7% after hours, while Intel, TSMC, and others also faced pressure. The market worries that the U.S. government may expand export controls to mid-range chips. Ironically, just three days before the policy was announced, NVIDIA announced a $500 billion investment plan over the next four years to build AI infrastructure in the U.S. This move, seen by outsiders as 'political 筹码，' may lay the groundwork for negotiation space. However, analysts warn that relocating supply chains to the U.S. will significantly increase production costs, potentially diluting NVIDIA's profit margins by 10-15 percentage points even if export licenses are obtained.

Wall Street is now 最关注 the details of the quarterly report to be released at the end of May. Although NVIDIA expects 全年营收 to grow by 56%, the 持续萎缩 of its China business may force the market to reassess its valuation logic—the current 25x forward P/E ratio is based on globalization 红利. If geopolitical risks become 常态， this 'AI 神话' may face a 价值重估. The storm triggered by the H20 chip has already 揭开 the 序幕 of a 半导体产业 '技术冷战.'

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