The last gamble

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Today I cleared all my options and saw only 11,000 left in my account. I suddenly felt like laughing.
I also thought about what would happen if I were penniless—would it be a rebirth like a phoenix or a rebirth by jumping off a building? In fact, neither happened. I’m still living like a dead dog, though maybe there’s still a glimmer of hope in my heart.
Who says you can’t turn things around with just 10,000 yuan?
I spent 7,500 on put options. Whether Powell cuts rates at 1 a.m. will temporarily determine the direction of the U.S. stock market. I’m firmly bearish.
U.S. stocks have rebounded too much recently, but the fundamentals haven’t changed, and the market has been wrecked by Trump.
Stepping out of my house, whether in the mainland or across the ocean, all I see is an economic winter. There’s no reason not to fall.
This is my last big gamble (though it’s only 7,500, it’s all I have left).
This time, whether I’m right or wrong, I won’t gamble again.

For quite a long time, I had over a million. I fell into deep thought—what exactly happened in this short span of less than a year?
I remember August 5th last year, when I closed my 5x leveraged Bitcoin position at over 48,000. Yeah, that was fear.
I remember September 26th last year, when I was full of confidence shorting Chinese concept stocks, kept adding to my position, then listened to others and went long on October 2nd—just as the market corrected, and I got wiped out. That was indecisiveness and blind following.
I remember Christmas, when I bought over a million in U.S. bonds, then stocks soared while bonds crashed. I lost tens of thousands and fled in defeat. That was reckless leverage.
I remember from January 13th to March, I kept shorting Chinese concept stocks and bled money again. That was bias and arrogance.
I remember Coin’s earnings beat expectations, and I was sure it would rise, so I heavily invested in stocks and options. Instead, it fell every day. On Friday, there was finally great news to break even, but then North Korea’s Bitcoin hack black swan hit, and it crashed again. That was recklessness and stupidity.
I remember when the App fell from 525 to 400+, I caught the falling knife at 471, thinking it would bounce back. Instead, it dropped to 200. That was recklessness too.
I remember the night before tariffs, I was still heavily leveraged on Alibaba. After tariffs, Alibaba plummeted. That night offered a last chance to escape, but I didn’t notice and even added to my position. The next day, retaliatory tariffs hit, and Alibaba crashed like a dog. That was slowness.
I remember at the end, I thought a stock market crash was coming, so I took my last few hundred thousand to buy doomsday options, hoping to recover in a day. Then Trump said one thing, and Nasdaq jumped 12 points. I lost everything.

My luck is terrible—I’ve encountered so many black swans.
My discipline isn’t enough—I went from investor to gambler.
If I got another chance, another million, could I win?
I think I could, because through all these lessons, I’ve learned something. It’s not for nothing—but experience doesn’t bring back money, just painful lessons.
I really, really want to make a comeback.

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