Powell's dilemma - April 15-16 review

Sometimes happiness is simple—a delicious dinner can already make one feel the joy of being alive; foodies are probably among the happiest people.

Facing the current situation in the U.S., not only are investors on edge every day, but Federal Reserve Chair Powell is also deeply troubled. Last night, he mentioned: Policy is in a good place, and we need to wait for clearer data before considering adjustments. Cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and related regulations are expected to ease. Tariffs may temporarily boost inflation, and the effects could last a long time. The current trend shows both inflation and unemployment rising. Don’t expect the Fed to intervene in the stock market’s sharp decline. Trump's policies are constantly changing, and market difficulties are understandable.

Powell’s main points can be summarized as follows: First, the cryptocurrency market will gain higher acceptance due to regulation. Second, stock market issues won’t affect Fed policy, so there won’t be reckless rate cuts. Third, Trump’s tariff policies may worsen inflation, slowing the pace of rate cuts.

The Hang Seng Index has clearly hit resistance at the first key level of 21,500 and is expected to gradually form a sideways range between 21,500 and 20,500. Individual stocks are becoming increasingly divergent.
$XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) has again faced resistance at 45. A pullback to around 40 may present a rebound opportunity $Xiaomi HSBC Five-Bull I.C (65284.HK)$; the defensive level is set at 36. $Macys(M.US)EITUAN(3690.HK) is showing extreme weakness, having officially broken below the major support at 147. Be very cautious as a downtrend may have formed. Watch for hedging opportunities $HS#MTUANRP2801A(60515.HK), with SL at 147.5. This pattern is very concerning—breaking major support, rebounding, and then falling again is a classic sign of a potential sharp decline. $BABA-W(9988.HK) is also relatively weak. Watch to see if it retests the $100 support level. This level will determine if a rebound occurs $Alibaba HSBC Fifty-Bull C.C (69312.HK)$, with a defensive level at 99. $TENCENT(700.HK) continues to trade in a range, with support at 425 and resistance at 475.

On the other hand, some Hong Kong stocks remain strong: $CHIFENG GOLD(6693.HK) has hit new highs due to gold prices soaring—it’s almost the only sector consistently rising amid the market turmoil. $POP MART(9992.HK) needs caution for a potential double-top pattern; a break below 145 would confirm it. $SentinelOne(S.US)entinelOne(S.US)MIC(981.HK) is hoping for a real rebound, with expected support above 42-43 and a potential rebound above $50 $SentinelOne(S.US)entinelOne(S.US)MIC HSBC Five-Bull H.C (65278.HK)$, defensive level at 39. $HSBC HOLDINGS(5.HK) faces major resistance near 82. $JD-SW(9618.HK) also needs caution, as it may follow Meituan’s path and break support.

The Nasdaq has returned to major support near 18,000, where it’s expected to find some stability and form a narrow trading range. Note that due to Trump’s tightened semiconductor export controls, semiconductor stocks have plunged sharply $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $AMD(AMD.US). Hedging strategies will be closely monitored $Direxion Semicon Bear 3X(SOXS.US). Semiconductor trends this year may lead the market downward. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is still range-bound without a clear trend. $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) remains highly overvalued; without strong growth, its lofty market cap expectations are unsustainable.

Positions & Trades
$Macys(M.US)icro Copper 2505 (MHG2505.US)$
All long copper futures positions have been closed for profit, as its performance lags behind other base metals.
$SentinelOne(S.US)entinelOne(S.US)oybean Oil 2505 (ZL2505.US)$
$SentinelOne(S.US)entinelOne(S.US)oybean Oil 2507 (ZL2507.US)$
After closing profitable May soybean oil futures, positions were rolled to July contracts. Now, watch to see if soybean oil can break through weekly chart resistance.

Reflection
Thus, the victories of skilled warriors are neither celebrated for their wisdom nor praised for their bravery, for their triumphs are flawless. Flawless victories mean they defeat those already destined to lose. In trading, if you observe seasoned traders closely, their moves may seem unremarkable—because the key to consistent long-term profitability lies in avoiding unnecessary mistakes. Unnecessary mistakes stem from disregarding trading principles and rules. Every trader should have predefined rules, but human nature loves to break them, seeking freedom to express individuality. Yet, in the vast ocean of markets, having no trading rules is like sailing without a ship. Ignoring rules is like the Titanic’s crew, whose negligence led to disaster.

Strategy
Most U.S. stocks remain weak, especially in tech. Only recession-resistant stocks are performing well, like $Macys(M.US)cDonald’s (MCD.US)$ and $Coca Cola(KO.US). However, these stocks are slow and dull—neither exciting nor easy to discard. $Netflix(NFLX.US) might be the only tech stock with upside potential, as binge-watching shows becomes a cost-effective option during a recession.
That said, gold is the clearest trend right now—it keeps hitting new highs with no catalysts for reversal in sight. $VALUEGOLD ETF(3081.HK) closely tracks gold prices and even allows physical redemption, a highly attractive feature given the high costs of storing and managing physical gold. Only physical gold qualifies as true asset allocation; paper gold lacks recession-proof qualities. This distinction highlights the difference between asset appreciation (focused on capital gains) and asset allocation (focused on safety and stability).
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