There is a golden mountain in the intraday trading on April 17th.
Well, after today's market performance, it's definitely a shot in the arm for everyone. At noon, we discussed in the group whether the Hang Seng Index has confirmed the bottom at 20822-20944. As expected, the index held above the 5-day moving average, basically confirming the completion of the short-term pullback over the past two days. We need to note that the Hang Seng Index has posted six consecutive gains, followed by a one-day adjustment, and today it directly rebounded. Moreover, the Easter holiday starts tomorrow, and funds will face a 4-day window! The willingness of funds to recover is very strong, and it's expected to fill all the gaps. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
In addition, the downward trend of the US Dollar Index is accelerating. Against this backdrop, the biggest beneficiary is the Hong Kong stock market among emerging markets! Funds withdrawn from US stocks are expected to flow back into Hong Kong stocks. $US Dollar Index (USDindex.FX)$
After today's close, US-listed Chinese stocks also performed well.
Currently, US stocks are facing four major headwinds: First, Powell's hawkish remarks last night, implying the market will continue to fluctuate.
Second, the news about Nvidia's H20 chip exports broke after the US market closed the day before yesterday. Future exports to us will require applications to the US due to export restrictions. The H20 chip may incur a $5.5 billion loss in Q1. Nvidia fell over 7% last night, dragging US stocks lower.
Third, ASML's semiconductor orders plummeted. Fourth, in the global trade system report, the WTO identified North America as the region most severely impacted by tariffs, adding fuel to the fire. Coupled with external pressure from major institutions shorting US stocks, the US dollar, and US bonds, US stocks are now the target of criticism, and the mid-term downward trend has been established. Correspondingly, some funds may bet on the rise of the East and the fall of the West.
Let’s talk about gold first.$CHIFENG GOLD(6693.HK)
Today, the gold sector, which had seen huge gains earlier, also experienced a pullback, mainly for two reasons:
It rose too much. The 20-day BIAS of gold prices has reached an exaggerated level, indicating short-term correction needs. However, the expected correction for gold is not significant, as the trend of de-dollarization is certain.
The market rotation is healthy, and short-term risk funds are flowing out to bet on other liquidity.
Real estate sector$Sunac China(1918.HK)
The real estate sector peaked in the morning session. The sustainability of this sector is not strong. The intraday rotation from domestic property stocks to real estate agents to elderly care concepts fully reflects the characteristics of a market with limited liquidity. This is mainly driven by news catalysts. In the review articles of the past two days, I repeatedly mentioned two points: First, Morgan Stanley expects China to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in Q2, with an estimated stimulus of 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, including a 5% reduction in economic stimulus policies, which will benefit fast-moving consumer goods and real estate destocking.
Second, the Premier’s research message in Beijing yesterday hinted that "new support measures" are being prepared. The shift is from stabilizing the bottom to stimulating recovery. The official media of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has replaced the usual "stabilizing the decline" with "rebounding," which is also a mid-term logic.
The computing power sector performed relatively weakly.
Kingsoft Cloud, GDS Holdings, etc. $KINGSOFT CLOUD(3896.HK)$GDS-SW(9698.HK)
Today, the "window guidance" notice from IDC computing power centers on computing infrastructure construction has been issued, and multiple regions will issue notices on computing power surveys starting this week. Systematically, this is a short-term negative for enterprises. We can watch for specific policies to be implemented before considering a bottom-fishing opportunity.
In addition, in the pharmaceutical sector, with US tariff policies focusing on self-interest and China's strong policy support, the logic of a turnaround in the pharmaceutical industry is continuously strengthening. $CSPC PHARMA(1093.HK)
That’s it for today’s review. Thanks for reading, and wish you all a happy holiday!
Follow me for forward-looking reviews of Hong Kong stocks and may your portfolios be full!
$Hang Seng Tech Index (800700.HK)$$XIAOMI-W(1810.HK)$BABA-W(9988.HK)$TENCENT(700.HK)$MEITUAN(3690.HK)$POP MART(9992.HK)$LAOPU GOLD(6181.HK)$XPENG-W(9868.HK)$JD-SW(9618.HK)$FOSUN PHARMA(2196.HK)$SMIC(981.HK)$SHANGHAI FUDAN(1385.HK)$HUA HONG SEMI(1347.HK)$CITIC SEC(6030.HK)$CCB(939.HK)$FL2CSOPGOLD(7299.HK)$XL2CSOPHSTECH(7226.HK)
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