2025/4/17 Before Bed

Asset Assessment:

Medium to Long Term (over one year):

USD: P

US Treasury Bonds: P

US Stocks: PP

A/H: CC

Gold: CCC

Oil: U (or wait for shale oil capacity to clear)

Short Term (days to two weeks):

USD: P

US Treasury Bonds: N

US Stocks: P 

A/H: Maintain CC, waiting for further positive policies from the East.

Gold: N As expected, overbought and correcting. Will do technical analysis over the weekend to find a good spot to buy calls.

Oil: N 

(P = Bearish, C = Bullish, N = Neutral, U = No Judgment)

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) 

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) 

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 

$CNOOC(00883.HK) 

$iShares China Large Cap(FXI.US) 

Portfolio Holdings:

New Positions:

Current Holdings:

SPY put, FXI call, CNOOC, sold FXI put to hedge time decay.

Closed Positions:

GLD

Key Technical Levels:

XAU 3180, 3200

SPX 5200

Macro Assessment:

Federal Reserve:

1. Poor economic data, rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, stabilizing US Treasuries at the cost of inflation. US stocks rise nominally but fall in real terms (higher probability).

2. Slightly better-than-expected economic data, delaying rate cuts to curb inflation risks (lower probability).

Powell's stance reconfirmed:

- No preemptive rate cuts, and won’t be swayed by the stock market.

- US Treasuries and recession risks remain a focus.

Trump:

Unlikely to further reduce tariffs.

Fundamentals:

Consumer data and inflation expectations are likely to worsen.

Conclusion:

Major economies like Japan, Europe, Canada, and China are unlikely to reach a short-term agreement —> Continued sell-off in US stocks, bonds, and currency.

However, US Treasuries are more protected, so short US stocks and go long on gold, which benefits from a weaker dollar.

A/H:

The national team actively pushed for seven consecutive green days, signaling clear intent. Policies may follow to trigger FOMO and break resistance levels.

Gold:

Experienced its first real correction, possibly due to dollar rebound + lingering US bond risks + technical overbought.

Long-term fundamentals unchanged. A good entry point could present a major call opportunity.

Other key mineral resources might also offer opportunities, but no time to research. Open to discussions if anyone has ideas.