老顽童投资漫谈
2025.04.18 01:05

April 18 A-share pre-market - Approaching a turning point, "if the enemy doesn't move, I won't move"

Yesterday, the three major A-share indices collectively opened lower,上演 a pattern of low opening followed by rally, then 震荡回落 in late trading, with overall indices showing minimal fluctuations. Over 3,000 stocks rose, which is relatively positive - as long as you didn't chase hot sectors, your portfolio likely recovered somewhat.

But the indices' seemingly casual eight-day winning streak is actually making investors increasingly uneasy. Everyone knows market support can only temporarily alter trends - even stabilization funds can't reverse market directions. When the time comes, the bottom-seeking process will inevitably resume.

The current A-share predicament resembles a chess game awaiting 破解. Stabilizing indices is merely 表象; the real key lies in 如何 reactivate the market to 召回 exited capital and even attract new external funds. After all, a market without trading volume is like an engine without fuel. We consider the 1.5 trillion trading volume threshold crucial - only when the market breaks through and sustains this level will we consider 重新入场布局. Otherwise, we'll maintain cautious small-position participation.

Overall, while the indices' performance appears "stable," investors remain vigilant against the "boiling frog" syndrome during such calm periods. Recently, the "April 19 curse" psychological effect might trigger a trend reversal - much like playing cards where timing and strategy determine outcomes. The A-share market now stands at such a critical juncture.

Avoid chasing individual stocks. For 套牢 positions, use rallies to sell high and repurchase during pullbacks - essentially practicing day trading.

$SSE Index(000001.SH)

$ChiNext(399006.SZ)

$Shenzhen TRI(399002.SZ)

$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

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