April 18, 2025 Morning

Asset Assessment:

Medium to Long Term (over 1 year):

USD: P

US Treasury Bonds: P

US Stocks: PP

A/H: CC

Gold: CCC

Oil: U (or wait for shale oil capacity clearance)

Short Term (days to two weeks):

USD: N

US Treasury Bonds: N

US Stocks: N

A/H: Maintain CC, waiting for further positive policies from the East.

Gold: N As expected, overbought correction. Weekend technical analysis to find call entry points.

Oil: N

(P = Bearish, C = Bullish, N = Neutral, U = No judgment)

Portfolio Holdings:

New Positions:

Current Holdings:

FXI call, CNOOC, sold FXI put to hedge time decay

Liquidated Positions:

SPY put, GLD

Key Technical Levels:

XAU 3180, 3200

SPX 5200

Macro Assessment:

Federal Reserve:

1. Poor economic data → rate cuts + balance sheet expansion → stabilize US Treasuries at the cost of inflation → nominal rise in US stocks but real value decline (higher probability)

2. Slightly positive economic data → delayed rate cuts to curb inflation risks (lower probability)

Powell reconfirmed:

- No preemptive rate cuts, nor will they be swayed by US stocks.

- US Treasuries and recession risks remain under watch.

Trump:

Highly unlikely to further reduce tariffs.

Fundamentals:

Consumer data and inflation expectations likely to worsen.

A/H:

National team actively pushed 7 consecutive green days with clear intent. May coordinate with policy announcements to stimulate FOMO sentiment for upward breakout.

Gold:

First meaningful correction due to USD rebound + US bond risk aftermath + technical overbought.

Long-term fundamentals unchanged – waiting for good call entry points.

Evaluation:

Overall, both Chinese and US markets are consolidating amid trade deal uncertainty – not ideal for one-sided options trading recently.

The trade deal itself is clearly being delayed: US asks for the moon, others haggle fiercely.

Japanese media reported Thursday that both sides showed goodwill but made almost no progress beyond agreeing to meet again.

Shigeru Ishiba stated:

"Gaps remain between Japanese and US positions."

"Discussions were lengthy, reportedly frank and constructive."

Indian humor