【True Insight Hong Kong Stocks Experts】Gold continues to play the role of a safe haven, with high target expectations of $6300

In 2009, the author's humble work "Strolling the Golden Path" was published. At that time, the U.S. was deeply in debt, and the Federal Reserve continued to print large amounts of U.S. dollars, which would eventually lead to the depreciation of the dollar. The signs of the dollar's decline had already begun to emerge, and it was expected that confidence would ultimately be lost! Additionally, for the internationalization of the RMB, China had to increase its gold reserves. Finally, based on technical chart analysis, the target price of "gold reaching $3,000 in ten years" was predicted—and it was ultimately achieved! In March 2025, gold broke through $3,000 for the first time, and from March to April, it repeatedly hit new highs. At the time of writing, the international spot gold price had reached a historic high of $3,357, with the upward trend seeming "unstoppable" and "relentless."

Due to gold's continuous rise, major institutions have repeatedly revised their price forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs predicted on September 12 last year that gold would rise to $2,700 by early 2025, revised it to $3,000 by the end of 2025 on October 29, adjusted it again to $3,100 by the end of 2025 on February 27 this year, and then raised it to $3,300 on March 26. Last week, on April 11, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast once more, predicting gold would reach $3,700 by the end of 2025. UBS announced on April 11 that it had revised its year-end gold price target from $3,200 to $3,500. The main bullish factors for increasing gold holdings include: (1) uncertainty from reciprocal tariffs, (2) expectations of high inflation, (3) escalating geopolitical risks, (4) funds seeking a "safe haven," and (5) shaken confidence in the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, leading to de-dollarization and increased gold reserves.

"Strolling the Golden Path" predicts gold's long-term trend based on a 60-year cycle. By 2030, this 60-year cycle will be complete. In 2009, the prediction of a 10-year bull market for gold did not account for the emergence of "cryptocurrencies" or the issuance of "digital currencies." It was expected that global central banks would collectively flood the market with liquidity, making money akin to worthless paper—if a government declared it was worth 10,000 yuan, it would be worth 10,000 yuan. Entering the 21st century, the wealth effect of cryptocurrencies has been like running a printing press daily, akin to governments worldwide abusing their monetary sovereignty, endlessly over-issuing currency and leading to increasingly exaggerated currency depreciation! Finally, the current U.S. administration may bring extremely high uncertainty to the world! The author expects gold prices to rise unusually over the next five years, with a high target of $6,300 to $10,000, equivalent to the gains of the previous long-term bull market. The financial markets will be highly volatile in the next five years, and gold will play the role of a "hero in troubled times" and a "safe haven."

(Risk Disclosure: Gold prices may rise or fall.)

Executive Director, New Harbour Fund Management Limited, Shi Lisheng