Tesla Q1 earnings preview: The game after the bad news is over and the three core technology highlights
From a fundamental perspective
Delivery volume hits bottom while stock price rebounds against logic
Tesla's Q1 global deliveries were 336,700 units, down 13% year-on-year, hitting a two-year low. The main reasons were production losses due to Model Y line upgrades, coupled with weak demand and intensified competition. However, the stock price rose 5% against the trend after the earnings report, as the market logic shifted to "bad news is fully priced in" bottom fishing:
Valuation has priced in expectations, with the stock price halving this year (down 50% from the 52-week high), increasing short-covering pressure, and speculative funds entering to bet on a rebound.
Marginal improvement signals: The new Model Y production ramp-up is progressing smoothly, and the energy storage business (10.4GWh deployed, up 156% YoY) partially offsets the decline in the auto business.
Financial metrics are under pressure but not worse than expected. The market expects Q1 revenue of $21.7 billion (slight YoY growth), EPS of $0.43 (below last year), and gross margin may drop to 15.8%. Although auto business gross margin continues to shrink (estimated at 15.2%), energy business gross margin reached 26%, acting as a buffer.
Key points: Three core narratives for valuation shift
Musk claims Model 2 mass production will be brought forward to early 2025 (originally planned for H2), but no specifics were revealed. The Shanghai factory plans an annual capacity of 1.75 million units, targeting a price of 140,000 RMB, directly challenging BYD Dolphin and Volkswagen ID.3.
The electronic workhorse Cybercab, equipped with FSD V13, claims a 37% reduction in extreme weather accident rates and gobbles up 3 million hours of driving data daily. If realized, it could open up a new blueprint for Tesla.
Robot mass production hype: Optimus plans trial production of 5,000 units in 2025, with costs compressed to $20,000 (1/3 of a worker's annual salary). Despite current clumsiness, the "robot slave" story supports tech valuation.
From automaker to AI company tech narrative: Traditional automakers trade at ~10x PE, but if Robotaxi + energy storage revenue exceeds 30%, valuation could shift to tech stocks (comparable to Waymo, CATL).
Technically, compared to the Magnificent Seven, Tesla is at a clear volume contraction level, with strong bullish intent on the chart. Overall, betting on "bad news is fully priced in" remains a highly cost-effective trade.
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