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2025.04.18 07:09

Netflix bucked the trend and rose 6%, performance is the primary driver of stock prices.

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Netflix fought its way out with earnings report, with Q1 revenue of $10.54 billion (expected $10.51 billion) and EPS of $6.61 (expected $5.71), after-hours stock price soared 6%. Even more impressive, the price hike strategy didn't affect users - the US, UK and Argentina markets remained stable. Although ad revenue wasn't disclosed, operating margin rose from 22.2% to 31.7%. Q2 revenue guidance of $11.04 billion beat market expectations of $10.89 billion, with market cap potentially reaching $1 trillion by 2030.

But how did it defy the odds? Part of the reason is that tariffs don't hit streaming services, and the worse the economy gets, the more people stay home binge-watching. Just like how people won't cancel their cheap TV subscriptions even when unemployed. Refer to Netflix's user surge during the 2012 European debt crisis and 2020 pandemic lockdowns.

However, Netflix has a forward P/E of 39x, higher than peers, and post-earnings rally may face pullback risks. Short-term, earnings momentum may linger but upside is limited - tread carefully.

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

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