Eli Lilly$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) announced the Phase III topline results of the ACHIEVE-1 trial on Thursday, comparing orforglipron with placebo in adults with type 2 diabetes who could not effectively control blood sugar through diet and exercise alone. The oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron performed exceptionally well in the Phase III clinical trial.

Trial Results

Oral Version Outperforms Injectable

Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron even surpasses injectable GLP-1 drugs like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in terms of weight-loss efficacy.

Trial results showed that patients taking Orforglipron lost an average of 16 pounds, equivalent to 7.9% of their body weight. In contrast, Novo Nordisk's star product Ozempic only reduced body weight by about 6% at the highest dose in diabetic patients. Additionally, this oral drug lowered blood sugar levels by an average of 1.3%, while Ozempic reduced it by 2.1%.

Novo Nordisk: What can I say?

Product Form Disruption: Eli Lilly Leads

Orforglipron was initially just a convenient oral alternative to GLP-1 injectables, but the oral weight-loss drug has now matched injectables. As a convenient once-daily oral pill, Orforglipron has a broader audience. If approved, it could be rapidly mass-produced and launched, disrupting the existing weight-loss drug market.

Oral Version Leaves Competitors in the Dust

Although the GLP-1 weight-loss drug field is already transitioning from injectables to more convenient oral forms, Eli Lilly has taken an early lead.

Current clinical data comparison for oral weight-loss drugs:

Pfizer PFE $Pfizer(PFE.US) announced the discontinuation of its oral weight-loss drug Danuglipron due to a potential drug-related liver injury in one patient during clinical trials.

Novo Nordisk NVO $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) has faced continuous setbacks since last June, with weaker-than-expected demand for its injectables Wegovy and Ozempic, disappointing interim trial results for its oral weight-loss drug monlunabant, and poor data performance for its investigational injectable CagriSema.

Due to competitors' poor performance, Eli Lilly's market prospects look promising.

The Only Issue Is Approval Timing

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said in a January 2025 Bloomberg TV interview that Orforglipron could receive FDA approval as early as early 2026, though it might take longer under normal circumstances. Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is expected to be approved in 2025-2026, potentially competing directly with Orforglipron.

Eli Lilly's Investment Strategy—Long-Term Planning

Take Eli Lilly's best-selling drug Mounjaro (active ingredient: tirzepatide) as an example:

Mounjaro

FDA approval date: May 13, 2022. Mounjaro was approved by the FDA for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Launch time: Officially launched in the U.S. market within weeks of approval (June 2022).

Zepbound (Mounjaro's sister product, also tirzepatide, for obesity)

FDA approval date: November 8, 2023.

Launch time: December 2023, further expanding tirzepatide's market.

Eli Lilly remains a performance-driven company. New product momentum depends on FDA approval and subsequent commercialization.