A-share market review: Fluctuated and weakened, failed to achieve nine consecutive gains

$Pro Shrt S&P 500(SH.US)000001$ The market showed a narrow-range fluctuation today, with the three major indices mixed and trading volume further shrinking compared to yesterday. Among them, bank stocks once again bucked the trend and became active, with the "Big Four" banks (Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank) hitting record highs one after another. Sectors like 5G and deep-sea technology also performed relatively actively during the session, while the previously strong consumer sector entered a consolidation phase, with tourism, hotels, and dairy leading the decline.

So, why did the two markets fail to achieve a "nine-day winning streak"? I think there are two main reasons.

The first reason is that market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, which has affected the overall sentiment. Currently, global expectations for the economy are almost universally pessimistic, except for Trump, who remains bullish. Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated in an interview: "Tariffs are likely to push the U.S. further away from its inflation target for the rest of the year, so there will be no rate cuts for now." Over at the European Central Bank, while they cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, Lagarde's remarks were quite pessimistic. Due to escalating trade tensions, growth prospects are worsening, and the economy is shrouded in "exceptional uncertainty." The IMF also plans to lower its global growth forecast next week. The Fed's Williams further deepened expectations of no rate cuts, bluntly stating, "There's no need to adjust rates in the short term!" Moreover, Trump even called for Powell's resignation during the meeting. Whether it's rate cut expectations, economic outlooks, or those uncertainties, they are all intensifying concerns in the capital markets.

The second reason is that A-shares currently lack sustained hot spots, and the two markets face pressure in achieving a breakthrough. In recent days, A-shares' performance has often relied on late-session rallies or support from the "national team" to achieve the remarkable feat of an "eight-day winning streak" against the trend. However, today, the late-session funds clearly showed signs of exhaustion, so the "nine-day winning streak" wasn't achieved.

Now, let's take a look at the specifics of each sector.

Bank stocks bucked the trend and became active. From a news perspective, according to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, several listed banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Hangzhou, have seen stakes raised by insurance capital.

The 5G and communications equipment sectors performed actively during the session. On the news front, the State Council Information Office held a routine press conference on first-quarter economic data. The data showed that as of the end of March, the cumulative number of 5G base stations built and put into operation reached 4.395 million, while the number of 10G PON ports capable of gigabit network services hit 29.25 million. The 5G user penetration rate has already reached 75.9%. Additionally, data indicated that fixed-asset investment in the computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries above a certain scale grew by 10.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.3 percentage points higher than the national fixed-asset investment growth rate.

The deep-sea technology concept rebounded. On the news front, Hainan recently released the "Opinions on Building an Important Practice Ground for New Quality Productivity," promoting high-level innovation platforms like the Yazhou Bay National Laboratory, Deep-Sea Technology Innovation Center, and Aerospace Technology Innovation Center to tackle key core technologies. A research report pointed out that China's marine economy reached 10.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. With the continuous introduction of policies encouraging marine economy and deep-sea technology, coupled with technological advancements, China's high-end marine equipment manufacturing industry is expected to accelerate its development.

As for next week's A-share performance, I believe market concerns remain very strong. Without major positive news or significant stimulus, it will be difficult to attract more capital into the market. Right now, the market is mainly being sustained by bottom-fishing funds. The key to the market's direction lies in the strength of these funds. I maintain my previous view that the major indices will fluctuate within the range of 3,150 to 3,500 points.