Netflix's trillion-dollar market cap ambition, TSMC's fearlessness towards tariffs—are they worth following?

The Q1 2025 US earnings season has kicked off, with Netflix and TSMC stealing the spotlight recently. At market close, NFLX rose 1.19%, while TSM edged up 0.05%.

Netflix once again beat expectations with its Q1 earnings, reporting a 13% revenue surge to $10.54 billion (vs. $10.51B expected) and EPS of $6.61 (crushing the $5.71 estimate). Operating margins skyrocketed from 22.2% last quarter to 31.7%—the key driver behind the profit beat—fueled by subscription/ad growth and successful price hikes (including a new France increase).

NFLX guides Q2 revenue at $11.04B (+15.4% YoY), operating margin of 33%, and EPS of $7.03—all above consensus. WSJ reveals its ambitious 2030 plan: double revenue, quadruple operating profit, and chase a $1T market cap. Year-to-date, NFLX gained 9.7% while Nasdaq plunged 15.6%, making it a rare safe haven.

Hamilton Capital’s CIO notes NFLX avoids direct tariff impacts, with strong user growth, profitability, and ad momentum—its budget tier is recession-resistant. Oppenheimer highlights how NFLX thrived during both the 2012 Eurozone crisis and 2020 pandemic. But honestly, this seems overconfident! Bloomberg data shows NFLX trades at 39x forward P/E—way above S&P 500 Communication Services. Volatility risks loom, and EU digital taxes/regulations could bite if US-Europe relations sour. Still, global diversification mitigates near-term risks.

Now to TSMC—CEO C.C. Wei declared "client behavior unchanged, our outlook unchanged," doubling down on his unshakable swagger. Q1 net profit soared 60% to NT$361.6B (above estimates), with revenue at NT$839.25B and record gross/operating margins of 58.8%/48.5%. On potential US-China chip tariffs? Wei coolly said costs would mostly pass to clients, flexing TSMC’s pricing power. Not gonna lie—his audacity makes me crave chrysanthemum tea for some reason!

TSMC’s geopolitical tightrope walk justifies its arrogance. This "Taiwanese advanced semiconductor dream factory" is accelerating global expansion—$100B+ for six Arizona fabs, plus Japan/Germany plants. Despite a 40% share plunge this year, China contributes just 7% of revenue. Its cutting-edge chips are AI’s backbone, forcing US restraint. Tech giants’ relentless AI spend secures TSMC’s moat, though near-term US expansion costs may pressure margins.

Technically, TSM faces stiff resistance at 166 with MA5 capping gains. It jumped 4% pre-market yesterday only to give it all back by close.

Earnings chasers got bagged hard.

The SOXX chart shows semiconductor gloom persists—Nasdaq’s even worse. TSM may enter sideways limbo next week amid macro uncertainty.

NFLX tests 1000 resistance but feels dangerously toppy—I’d wait. Long-term holders might nibble though.

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