US Stocks • 2025 Strategy Map

I. Overall Strategy: Positioning in a Structural Bear Market

Confirm that the U.S. stock market in 2025 is in a highly volatile and divergent economic environment shaped by "Fed rate cuts + Trump policy uncertainty";

Market characteristics: Significant fluctuations and cyclical adjustments;

Medium-to-long-term outlook: The trend resembles the structural correction of 2018, but vigilance is required against the risk of escalating into a systemic crisis like 2008.

II. Short-Term Trading: Navigating High Volatility

Phase	Trading Approach	Execution
Strong rebound phase	Moderately increase positions in blue-chip giants (NVDA/TSLA, etc.)	Add positions short-term, take profits in batches at highs
Overextended rebound phase	Reduce exposure, control risk	Exit most consumer tech stocks, cautious 观望
Pullback phase	Selectively short overvalued growth stocks	Target carefully, trade in batches, strict position control

III. Core Challenge: Distinguishing Long-Term Trends from Short-Term Rhythms

Long-term view: 2025 is a structural bear market with slowing growth and deleveraging, but not yet systemic collapse;

Short-term opportunities: Local oversold conditions or liquidity-driven rallies still offer trading potential;

Mindset requirement: Rebounds ≠ bull market returns—stay rational.

IV. Key Indicators to Watch

Indicator	Significance	Current Status
S&P 500 trend	Whether a 阶段性 top is confirmed, entering correction 通道	Forming topping pattern
Blue-chip fund flows	Signs of concentrated outflows, rotation to secondary tech stocks	Early 迹象
VIX volatility index	Whether 跌破 20 or shows 高频 volatility shifts	Volatility intensifying
Fed policy 动向	Potential 超预期 rate cuts or 宽松 cycle	Awaiting confirmation
U.S.-China trade tensions	Risk of 恶化 impacting global sentiment	Escalating

V. Annual Trading Rhythm (Monthly)

Month	Phase	Plan
May	Strong rebound	Add blue-chips, take profits timely, control concentration
June	Volatile pullback	Trim high-flyers, raise cash, defensive positioning
July	Summer surge	Short select overvalued growth stocks, strict stops
Aug	High volatility	Cut exposure to minimal, stay flexible
Sept	Unclear trend	Adjust dynamically based on price action
Oct	Policy 博弈期	Tentative positioning, single-stock risk control
Nov-Dec	Potential breakdown	Defensive allocation, preserve cash for extremes

VI. Core Asset Pool (Long/Short Strategies)

Top Blue-Chip Picks (Long)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Overvalued Growth Stocks (Short Candidates)

$Roblox(RBLX.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) $Lucid(LCID.US) $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

High-Volatility Small-Caps (Monitor)

$Arm(ARM.US) $IonQ(IONQ.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US)

Defensive Assets (Extreme Scenarios)

$Berkshire Hathaway B(BRK.B.US) $Abbvie(ABBV.US) $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) $Eli Lilly(LLY.US)

VII. Position Management & Trading Rules

Position Sizing

May–Jul: Max 60% exposure, 20% cash buffer;

Aug–Sep: Reduce to ≤30%, focus on defensives;

Oct+: Adjust dynamically to 10%-20%, ultra-defensive.

Trade Standards

Single position: ≤15% of portfolio;

Profit-taking: Scale out at 8%-12% gains;

Stop-loss: Cut at 5%-6% losses;

Liquidity: Prioritize stocks with $1B+ daily volume.

Risk Protocols

Surge signal: After 2+ big up days, halve exposure to lock gains;

Black swan: Immediate liquidation, prioritize high-volatility assets.

VIII. Conclusion: Navigating 2025 Rationally

Foresight: Expect 剧烈震荡 and structural adjustments;

Flexibility: Prioritize liquidity management;

Adaptability: Switch modes per market rhythms;

Resilience: Preserve capital for better opportunities.

Disclaimer

This content is for reference only, not investment advice. Markets involve risks; invest cautiously. Investors should make independent decisions based on personal circumstances and bear all risks. Using this material implies acceptance of this disclaimer.

Original PPT: https://gamma.app/docs/US-Stocks-2025-Response-Strategy-Map-k7w3wgkolza5sqj