US stock live trading-20250427: The wait-and-see party will never surrender

Overview:

This week, the S&P 500 index rose by 4.59%, while my actual portfolio net value increased by 2.14%.

Year-to-date in 2025, the S&P 500 index fell by 6.06%, and my actual portfolio net value dropped by 3.93% (starting net value was 1.60, current net value is 1.54).

Trades:

Liquidated Bitcoin ETF position

Holdings:

TLT 21.5%, BIL 78.5%.

Numbers are rounded, and positions below 1% are generally not recorded.

Review:

First, about trades: Bitcoin has been surging over the past two weeks, repeatedly testing previous highs. However, given that U.S. stocks are unlikely to enter a bull market in the first half of this year, I chose to sell on rallies, lock in profits, and wait for the next buying opportunity. I mentioned this trade in Thursday's public article.

Cash-like assets now account for 100% of my portfolio—a first in my years of investing. This is mainly due to the numerous unforeseen events this year that have severely disrupted my usual investment strategy. Until the two conditions I've repeatedly mentioned are triggered or show signs of triggering, I'll remain a "wait-and-see player." The most important aspect of long-term investing is controlling drawdowns, not how high you can ride a bull market. That's why I usually miss the exact bottoms and tops.

U.S. stocks rallied this week, but the reasons for the uptick are shaky:

1) Strong earnings from tech giants? But Tesla's earnings were terrible. Elon Musk made some vague promises and announced his exit from Dogecoin—so that lifted the market? Or was it Google's better-than-expected earnings that fueled optimism for other giants' reports next week, driving the rally?

2) Trump again claimed to be in talks with China, suggesting a potential thaw. But China vehemently denied it on Friday, clarifying that it was just a G20 meeting attended by a central bank governor. The market didn't drop on Friday despite this—very strong, but hard to understand.

3) The Fed sounded dovish, but the speaker wasn't Powell—it was Waller, whom Trump has been pushing to replace Powell. But we all know the plan to oust Powell has stalled, so Waller's comments seem more about pleasing Trump than having any practical impact.

4) Rumors circulated about China exempting chips from tariffs, but no credible media reported it. The only source was a blurry A4 printout—very reminiscent of speculative plays in China's A-shares.

Over the weekend, Trump stirred up more drama (details omitted). It seems he has a pattern: when stocks rally, he turns tough; when they drop, he floats fake positives to calm the market while setting up insider trades.

I still believe U.S. stocks lack a stable foundation for a sustained bull run in the first half of the year. Fundamentals are irrelevant—gains and losses hinge on Trump's tweets. I can't compete with that, so I'll stay on the sidelines.

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Individual stocks:

1. Tesla

If there's any real positive beyond sentiment, it's this:

On Thursday, the U.S. government unveiled a new regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles, aiming to accelerate deployment while maintaining safety reporting requirements. The DOT said U.S. companies developing AVs could be exempt from certain federal safety rules for testing. It also plans to simplify crash reporting for AV software and move toward national AV regulations to replace fragmented state laws.

This is essentially a policy tailored for Tesla. With Musk largely sidelined by Trump's team, is this a consolation prize?

But to fix Tesla's weak fundamentals, Musk needs to focus on his job instead of tweeting about politics—otherwise, any gains will be reversed.

2. Apple

Analysis suggests Amazon and Apple could be the tech giants hit hardest by tariffs. Amazon reports next Thursday after market close—its ad business may suffer, and its Asia-dependent retail revenue will likely take a tariff hit.

Apple also reports next Thursday. While panic buying might provide a short-term boost, rising supply-chain costs and weaker consumer spending will eventually bite. The 90-day tariff truce is almost over with no major deals signed—stalemate likely continues, so I'll stay in cash.

3. Google

Earnings beat estimates, but the stock faded after an early pop. Two red flags:

1) Suspect accounting: 46% profit growth included an $8B gain from SpaceX (unlisted, so arguably shouldn't count). Excluding that, growth was just 12%.

2) Cloud growth slowed amid higher capex, with no guidance—perhaps management is as confused as anyone about policy impacts. Shares opened 5% higher premarket but faded—not a good sign.

4. Microsoft

Reports Q3 FY2025 (calendar Q1) earnings on April 30 after market close. Consensus expects $68.44B revenue (+10.63% YoY) and EPS of $3.22 (+9.39%). Watch the same Google-related issues, though Microsoft has held up best.

5. Petrobras

Oil rose Thursday despite OPEC+ unity concerns. Reports suggest the group may accelerate its 2.2M bpd cut phase-out, as some members overproduce. Reuters said OPEC+ is considering a second early supply hike in June to pressure non-compliant members like Kazakhstan.

Energy remains volatile amid global instability and OPEC+ infighting. With war risks rising, buying on dips with a margin of safety could work.

6. Bitcoin ETF

Unless it moons, I'll likely re-enter Bitcoin ETF this year, targeting $7.5-8.5 in batches. As for MSTR, I missed the bottom by $10—but if volatility continues, opportunities will come. Forget grand narratives; enjoy swing trading :)

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Finally, valuation table (all figures in USD):

Notes (must-read):

1. The buy points, fair prices, and sell points above are calculated using my own methodology—not an absolute or universally correct standard, just a reference for assessing current prices.

2. If a price point has two values, the lower is the floor and the higher is the ceiling—which to use depends on my subjective judgment and understanding of the company. No fixed rules.

3. Blue/red highlights flag stocks nearing my buy/sell zones for closer attention—not a guarantee I'll act.

4. Numbers may adjust as I reassess company fundamentals. Don't treat them as long-term benchmarks.

5. This table is for my personal trading records—not investment advice. If you ask whether to buy something, my answer is no.

6. Fellow holders, feel free to critique my takes in comments—let's learn and profit together.$Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)