Overall, the three major indices opened lower and closed flat yesterday. Taking the S&P 500 as an example, it opened near the support level of 5600 and fluctuated upwards from there. Today, influenced by Sino-US negotiations, futures opened higher. The impact of tonight's interest rate decision is expected to remain cautious, with cooling rate cut expectations after strong non-farm payrolls. Despite positive factors, the market is still slowly correcting, with futures continuing to decline.Today, US stocks mainly experienced a rally followed by a pullback without stimulus. Taking the S&P 500 as an example, resistance is at 5650/5700, and support is at 5600.

Three Major Indices

The three major indices collectively closed lower, with the Dow Jones leading the decline, followed by the Nasdaq's tech sector. The Dow's drop was mainly due to remarks on pharmaceutical tariffs, causing declines in heavyweights like UnitedHealth, Merck, Honeywell, and Amgen. After removing this impact, tech still led the decline.

Position-wise, a slight decline; intraday, it nearly formed a doji, indicating heavy sideways movement as previously mentioned.

Sino-US Talks Scheduled for May 9-12: He Lifeng vs. Janet Yellen

After hours, at 5:55 Beijing time, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced: At the invitation of the Swiss government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 to hold talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, Vice Premier He Lifeng, as China's lead on Sino-US economic and trade issues, will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. From May 12 to 16, Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit France to co-chair the 10th China-France High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue.

After the announcement, futures for the three major US indices surged over 1%.

Tonight's Fed FOMC Rate Decision Approaches

At 2 AM, the Fed will announce its rate decision. Rate cut expectations rose after the ADP employment report was halved but cooled again due to strong non-farm payrolls. Goldman Sachs also revised its Q1 GDP growth forecast from -0.3% to a strong Q2 growth, indicating no US recession. With strong employment and the Fed's rate cut conditions—only considering cuts if employment severely deteriorates—and tariff impacts expected in June, no rate cut is anticipated in May. Expect a wait-and-see stance on tariffs, refocusing on inflation.

Today's Stock Index Futures rallied initially but fell later, opening higher and closing lower, mainly due to Sino-US talk optimism and cooling rate cut expectations.

VIX rose for two days due to Trump's tariff activities but fell after Sino-US talks, now at 23.65. I still prefer a buy-on-dips strategy, only buying low, averaging costs to around 22. (Refer to the 2022 bear market where VIX bottomed at 20).

Sector Analysis

Sectors mostly declined, with pharmaceuticals and biotech leading, followed by internet and software, heavily impacted by Trump's remarks on drug tariffs.

Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven all declined, with Tesla and META leading the drop.

Tesla$Tesla(TSLA.US) returned near the 292-272 bottom yesterday, with slight pre-market gains.

META$Meta Platforms(META.US) fell to the 587 support level yesterday due to market sentiment but rose to yesterday's opening level pre-market.

Amazon and Apple rose about 1% pre-market, mainly due to Sino-US talks.

Others

Gold briefly corrected after two days of rallying to the peak, facing technical pressure and geopolitical tensions in India.

Bitcoin surged to 97,500 early on Sino-US news but later fluctuated around 96,500.

AMD$AMD(AMD.US) reported better-than-expected earnings but cited tariffs impacting full-year revenue by 15%, turning a 4% gain into a 2% drop before rebounding to 1.7% on Sino-US talks. MI350's impact will be more evident in H2—can it reverse the stock's persistent weakness?

HIMS$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) reported strong earnings, maintaining full-year revenue guidance and raising profit forecasts, surging 18% post-earnings. Previously impacted by Novo Nordisk's approval to sell cheap weight-loss drugs, multiple positives were realized.

PLTR$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is limited by high valuations and slowing growth, though its position and growth remain solid, dropping over 9% post-earnings.

Defensive Portfolio

SAP and Verisign ended their winning streaks, while Netflix and Philip Morris held steady.

Today's Earnings

Applovin APP$AppLovin(APP.US) —I set a stop-loss and participated, seeing it as a chance to prove its strength.

Occidental Petroleum OXY$Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) —though a Buffett holding, is pessimistic amid falling oil prices.

Unity U$Unity Software(U.US) —competes with APP.

Disney DIS$Disney(DIS.US) —focus on streaming's tariff resilience and earnings guidance.

Arm Holdings ARM, focus on chip demand.

Carvana CVNA, used cars, focus on tariff impacts in guidance.

Follow WallStreetSweeper for the latest US stock trends. Wishing everyone an 8x return in 2025!