全天候 (5.0) 旧案

My personal all-weather stock portfolio allocation is as follows:

40% TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, providing stable income and interest rate hedging, but sensitive to interest rate changes.

15% HYGH (iShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF)
Interest rate-hedged high-yield bonds, reducing interest rate risk while pursuing higher returns.

30% SPMO (Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF)
Tracks the S&P 500 Momentum Factor, focusing on large-cap stocks with strong recent performance, suitable for growth-oriented strategies.

7.5% GLDM (SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust)
Gold ETF, used for hedging and inflation protection, but with higher volatility.

7.5% DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund)
Commodity ETF, diversifying stock/bond risks and benefiting from inflation cycles.

☄️Key Points

Stock-Bond Balance

• 70% bonds (TLT + HYGH) lean conservative, 30% stocks (SPMO) provide growth, suitable for moderate risk tolerance.
• High allocation to long-term Treasuries (TLT) may perform well if interest rates fall but could suffer during rate hikes.

Hedging & Diversification

• HYGH hedges interest rate risk; GLDM/DBC hedge inflation and stock market volatility, enhancing risk resilience.
• Commodities (DBC) and gold (GLDM) total 15%, potentially volatile but reduce correlation.

Potential Improvements

• For higher returns: Reduce TLT, increase SPMO.
• If concerned about inflation: Raise GLDM/DBC allocation (e.g., to 10% each).
• Add international assets (e.g., IOO) for further diversification.

Risk Warnings

• Bond allocation (55%) is highly sensitive to interest rate policies.
• Momentum strategy (SPMO) may face drawdowns during market reversals.

Target Investors

Suitable for moderate-risk-tolerant investors seeking balanced returns and hedging, with commodities/gold for inflation protection. Requires periodic rebalancing (e.g., annually) to maintain allocations.

Adjust based on personal risk appetite and market conditions (e.g., reduce TLT during rate hikes, increase SPMO during economic recovery).