Saint Bella IPO Analysis: A High-End Bet on the New Family Care Paradigm

Part 1: Executive Summary and Investment Thesis

$SAINT BELLA(02508.HK) , as China's leading and fastest-growing high-end postpartum care group, is debuting on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the "first stock of global family quality care" ¹. The core investment issue of this IPO is: In the macro background of declining national birth rates, can 圣贝拉 achieve sustainable profitability and support its IPO valuation with its high-growth, high-margin, and high-end focused business model? This report will provide investors with a comprehensive decision-making framework through in-depth analysis of its industry prospects, business model, financial status, competitive barriers, and risk factors.

Investment Highlights (Bullish View)

Absolute Leader in the High-End Segment: 圣贝拉 precisely positions itself in the fastest-growing and most profitable high-end and ultra-high-end fields of the postpartum care market. With the continuous release of demand for quality services from high-net-worth families and consumption upgrades, the company, as an industry benchmark, enjoys significant brand premium and pricing power ².

Excellent Business Model and Execution: The company innovatively adopts a "light asset" model in cooperation with top five-star hotels, not only achieving rapid network expansion but also cleverly binding the brand with luxury experiences. This model allows its gross margin to reach about 36.5%, significantly superior to industry competitors, proving its excellent operational efficiency and cost control capabilities ⁵.

Proven Growth Trajectory and Profit Path: Despite recording net losses in financial reports, the company's revenue shows explosive growth. More importantly, the adjusted net profit has turned positive and continues to grow. This indicates that after excluding non-cash accounting treatments related to past financing, its core business already has healthy profitability and positive operating cash flow ⁴.

Strong Support from Top Capital: 圣贝拉's shareholder list is star-studded, not only including strategic investors like Tencent but also cornerstone investors such as state-owned background funds, well-known public funds, and industrial capital. This is not only a strong endorsement of its business model but also suggests that the company may receive continuous strategic resource support in future development ⁴.

Main Risks (Bearish View)

Profitability Paradox: The company's rapid growth is accompanied by high costs, especially the ongoing lease expenses from cooperation with high-end hotels, which is the main reason for its large net losses in the past. Whether it can continue to optimize its cost structure in the future and effectively convert high gross margins into net profits remains a market focus ².

Structural Challenges of the Macro Environment: The continuous decline in the number of newborns in China is a long-term structural risk facing the entire maternal and infant industry. Although the high-end market is relatively less affected, it undoubtedly limits the overall "ceiling" of the industry ¹⁰.

Execution and Regulatory Risks: With increasingly fierce market competition, the company's rapid expansion (especially in overseas markets) brings challenges in management and quality control. In addition, the company was once fined for "practicing medicine without a license," showing the compliance risks of high-end care services at the boundary of "health consultation" and "medical services" ⁷.

Comprehensive Recommendation

Cautious Subscription. 圣贝拉 is a typical high-growth, high-risk, and high-potential company. Its unique market positioning, excellent brand power, and proven operational efficiency make it a scarce and high-quality investment target in China's consumption upgrade wave. However, its high valuation, continuous net loss record, and macro and regulatory uncertainties require investors to have a high risk tolerance. This report believes that for investors who are optimistic about China's high-end consumer market, recognize its "light asset" model moat, and are willing to bear short-term fluctuations in exchange for long-term growth potential, 圣贝拉's IPO is worth participating in.

Part 2: The Evolving Chinese High-End Family Care Market

The rise of 圣贝拉 is not accidental but rooted in the fertile soil of profound socio-economic changes in China. To understand its investment value, one must first grasp the macro drivers, industry characteristics, and core challenges of its track.

Macro Tailwinds: The Foundation of High-End Consumption

The fundamental driving force behind the growth of the family care service market where 圣贝拉 is located is the continuous development of China's economy and the leap in residents' consumption capacity. First, the steady growth of residents' per capita disposable income is the foundation of consumption upgrade. In 2021, China's per capita disposable income maintained a growth of 9.1%, while the growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure reached 13.6% ¹³. This means that more and more families have the ability and willingness to pay for higher quality life services.

Secondly, the rise of the "she economy" has injected strong momentum into high-end maternal and infant services. Modern women, especially highly educated and high-income urban women, have more say in family consumption decisions. They pay more attention to scientific parenting, postpartum physical and mental health, and self-worth realization, and are willing to pay high fees for professional services that can provide emotional value and comfortable experiences ¹¹. This change in consumption concept has gradually turned postpartum centers from an "optional" luxury to a "must-have" for many middle- and high-income families.

Finally, the "high-end" trend of the entire maternal and infant market is irreversible. Reports show that in the past two years, the high-end segment has continuously contributed the main growth momentum to the maternal and infant industry. In the context of increasingly fierce competition in product homogenization, high-quality and personalized services and products are more likely to stand out ¹⁴. 圣贝拉 is a direct beneficiary and leader of this trend.

Industry Deep Dive: The Golden Track of "Postpartum Centers"

Postpartum care services, commonly known as "sitting the month," have a deep cultural tradition in China. Modern postpartum centers combine it with scientific maternal and infant care, postpartum rehabilitation, and hotel-style services, forming a rapidly growing emerging industry.

According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, the market size of the mainland China's postpartum center industry achieved a compound annual growth rate of 22.7% from 2018 to 2023, with the market size exceeding 22.3 billion yuan in 2022 ². Critically, the growth rate of the high-end market is significantly higher than that of the mass market ². This indicates that the market increment is mainly driven by customer groups willing to pay a premium for superior environments, more professional care, and more comprehensive services.

Despite the rapid market growth, the industry penetration rate is still at a low level. Compared with some other Asian markets, the usage rate of postpartum centers in mainland China still has huge room for improvement. With the increase in consumer awareness, continuous innovation in service models, and gradual establishment of industry standards, the market is expected to continue to expand rapidly in the future ¹¹.

Facing Core Challenges: Coping with Declining Birth Rates

Any analysis of the maternal and infant industry cannot avoid the macro fact of declining birth rates in China ¹¹. This is undoubtedly the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over all practitioners, as it directly relates to the total number of potential customers. However, for the high-end market where 圣贝拉 is located, the impact of this challenge requires deeper analysis.

For high-end service providers like 圣贝拉, their growth logic does not entirely rely on the absolute number of newborns but more on the improvement of two core variables: market penetration rate and average revenue per user (ARPU).

The logic chain behind this is as follows:

Target Customer Differentiation: 圣贝拉's target customers are high-net-worth and affluent individuals ⁵. This group is far less sensitive to price than to service quality, safety, privacy, and brand reputation. For them, childbirth is a major life event, and the budget is relatively rigid. Under the concept of "fewer births, better upbringing," the willingness to invest in a single childbirth may even be higher.

Growth from Penetration Rate Increase: Currently, even among high-income groups, the proportion of choosing postpartum centers is far from saturated. 圣贝拉's growth space first comes from persuading more families with consumption ability to shift from traditional family or nanny care models to professional, standardized institutional care.

Growth from Price Increase: Data shows that the daily price of 圣贝拉's two major brands is steadily increasing year by year ¹⁰. The daily average cost of its ultra-high-end brand "圣贝拉" has approached 7,000 yuan, far exceeding the industry average by more than 30% ¹⁰. By continuously adding value-added services such as "art therapy," professional medical teams, and high-end functional foods, the company can continuously push up the customer unit price.

Therefore, the conclusion is clear: 圣贝拉's investment story is not a broad-spectrum growth story based on demographic dividends but a precise growth story driven by brand power, service power, and consumption upgrade in a specific circle, hedging the decline in "birth rate" by increasing "customer unit price" and "penetration rate". As long as the scale of China's high-income group continues to expand and their pursuit of high-quality services remains unchanged, 圣贝拉's growth space will remain broad.

Part 3: 圣贝拉: Deconstructing the "Hermès of the Postpartum Center World"

Since its establishment in 2017, 圣贝拉 has rapidly risen to become the industry leader in just a few years. Its success is not accidental but stems from its founder's precise insight into the market, innovative business model design, and clear multi-brand strategic layout.

Company Overview and Strategic Vision

圣贝拉 was founded in 2017 by post-85 founder Xiang Hua ¹. The company started with the postpartum center business and gradually built a comprehensive family care service matrix covering postpartum maternal and infant care, postpartum rehabilitation, family parenting, elderly care, women's health food, and even internet health management ⁵. By the end of 2024, 圣贝拉's business map has expanded to nearly 80 stores worldwide, covering 25 cities ¹, and successfully entered the Hong Kong, Singapore, and US markets, becoming the first mainland Chinese postpartum center operator to expand overseas ⁴. Its vision is to become a global leader in quality family care, meeting the diverse needs of families at different life cycle stages ⁵.

Light Asset Business Model: A Double-Edged Sword

The core and disruptive nature of 圣贝拉's model lies in its unique "light asset" operation strategy.

Core Strategy: Unlike the heavy asset model of traditional postpartum centers that own or lease standalone properties for the long term, 圣贝拉 chooses to cooperate with top five-star hotels (such as Peninsula Hotel, Waldorf Astoria, Bellagio Hotel, etc.) or high-end standalone villas in the core areas of cities ⁵. As a long-term lessee, the company leads professional medical and service teams to settle in and quickly build high-quality care service spaces within the hotels ⁵.

Model Advantages: The biggest advantages of this model are:

Avoiding Heavy Capital Expenditure: It avoids the high upfront investment required for purchasing or large-scale renovation of properties, allowing the company to focus resources more on building core service capabilities and enhancing customer experience ⁵.

Achieving Rapid Expansion: The light asset model significantly shortens the cycle of opening new stores, enabling the company to quickly seize key locations in the core cities of first- and second-tier cities nationwide, forming a network effect ⁴.

Instant Brand Empowerment: Settling in luxury hotels like Peninsula and Waldorf Astoria itself is a powerful brand endorsement, quickly establishing the brand association of 圣贝拉 = luxury and high-end in consumers' minds, greatly reducing market education costs ⁵.

However, this model is not without flaws. The other side of its "double-edged sword" is that it converts capital expenditure (Capex) into operating expenditure (Opex). The continuously rising hotel rental fees are one of the company's main cost components and a key reason for its financial pressure and net losses ⁹.

Nevertheless, viewing high rent merely as a financial burden is one-sided. A deeper analysis shows that this model itself builds a strategic moat. The number of top luxury hotels in the core areas of a city is limited, and 圣贝拉 has actually formed a "positioning" of scarce high-end property resources by establishing deep strategic partnerships with these hotels first. This sets a high entry barrier for latecomers, as competitors find it difficult to replicate its service scenarios in locations and environments of the same level ⁶. The introduction of real estate giants like Swire Properties and Sun Hung Kai as strategic investors in early financing may also be related to securing these core property resources ⁴. Therefore, high rent can be understood as a strategic investment, a "ticket" necessary to maintain its high-end positioning and competitive advantage.

Multi-Brand Matrix: Precise Market Coverage

To achieve more refined customer segmentation within the high-end market, 圣贝拉 has built a differentiated multi-brand matrix:

圣贝拉 (SAINT BELLA): As the group's flagship brand, it targets the ultra-high-end market. Its service packages start at 168,800 yuan, with a daily average cost of about 6,742 yuan, adopting a 24-hour one-on-one nurse care model and incorporating unique concepts such as "art therapy," designed for high-net-worth individuals with extreme service quality requirements ⁵.

小贝拉 (Baby BELLA) and 艾屿 (Bella Isla): These two brands target the high-end and light luxury markets, with package prices starting from 68,000 yuan and a daily average cost of about 3,478 yuan ¹⁰. They also rely on high-end hotels but offer more flexible service configurations and prices, aiming to capture a broader range of affluent and middle-class urban families ³.

The brilliance of this brand strategy lies in maintaining the "圣贝拉" brand's pyramid peak image while achieving market penetration and expansion through sub-brands like "小贝拉." Data shows that this strategy is extremely successful. The number of customers and revenue growth of "小贝拉" centers have significantly exceeded the main brand. In 2023, "小贝拉" revenue grew by 27.4% year-on-year, far exceeding the growth rate of the main brand, and its customer number by 2024 has nearly doubled that of the main brand ⁸. This fully proves that the brand halo and operational capabilities of 圣贝拉 can be successfully replicated to a broader customer base, greatly expanding the company's market space and reducing the risk of overly concentrated business.

Beyond the First Month: Building a Full Lifecycle Customer Ecosystem

圣贝拉's ambition is not limited to the 28 days postpartum. The company is actively laying out plans to maximize the lifecycle value of its customers. Through strategic extensions, the company has entered multiple related fields:

Family Care Services: Launched the "Yu Jia" brand in 2018, providing customized family parenting and care services, extending the trust relationship established in postpartum centers to customers' daily family lives ⁴.

Women's Health Retail: Acquired the well-known postpartum meal brand "Guang He Tang" in 2021, entering the women's health functional food retail track, forming a synergy of "service + product" ⁴.

Future Layout: According to the fundraising use plan in the prospectus, the company will invest a large amount of funds in developing elderly care business, marking its service target extending from the "starting point" (newborns) to the "end point" (elderly care), aiming to build a complete family full lifecycle care ecosystem ⁵.

Part 4: Financial Verification: In-Depth Interpretation of the Numbers Behind

For any company seeking to go public, financial statements are the touchstone to test its quality and potential. 圣贝拉's financial data presents a typical "growth company" characteristic: rapid revenue growth coexists with continued losses on the books. Understanding this "contradiction" is key to assessing its investment value.

The Tug of War Between Growth and Profitability

Revenue Side: The company's growth momentum is very strong. Operating revenue increased from 259 million yuan in 2021 to 560 million yuan in 2023, and continued to grow by 32.0% year-on-year to 358 million yuan in the first half of 2024 ⁴. According to updated prospectus data, the full-year revenue for 2024 reached 873 million Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 42.64% ³. This series of data clearly demonstrates the rapid expansion of the company's business and the high recognition of its services in the market.

Loss Side: However, on the profit and loss statement, the company has never achieved annual profitability since its establishment, with cumulative losses exceeding 700 million yuan from 2021 to 2023 ². According to detailed data in the prospectus, the net losses for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 411.6 million yuan, 238.9 million yuan, and 543.3 million yuan, respectively ⁷. This continued loss state is the main reason why many potential investors are deterred.

The Path to Profitability: Deconstructing "Adjusted Net Profit"

To accurately assess 圣贝拉's true profitability, one must penetrate the fog of book losses and understand the accounting logic behind it. In fact, its huge book losses are largely caused by non-cash, non-operating accounting treatments, which is very common for companies that have undergone multiple rounds of venture capital before going public.

The core logic is as follows:

The "Culprit" of Losses: The prospectus clearly states that net losses are significantly affected by "changes in the fair value of financial instruments issued to investors" ⁷. These financial instruments mainly refer to shares with conversion rights and other preferential rights issued by the company to investors such as Tencent and Gaorong in past financing.

Accounting Treatment Mechanism: According to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), such preferred shares are considered a "liability" in accounting. As the company's business develops and its valuation continues to rise, the fair value of this "liability" will also increase. Although this increase in fair value reflects the growth of the company's value, it must be recorded as a "loss" on the profit and loss statement. This loss is not a cash outflow caused by poor company operations but purely a book adjustment under accounting standards.

The "Correction" of IPO: The prospectus also discloses that these shares with preferential rights will automatically convert into ordinary shares after listing. At that time, this large financial liability will disappear from the balance sheet and be reclassified as shareholders' equity. This conversion will fundamentally improve the asset-liability structure by turning the "net liability" situation into a "net asset" situation ⁷.

Real Operating Conditions: To reflect the true operating performance, the company provides a non-IFRS indicator called "adjusted net profit." This indicator excludes the impact of non-operating items such as changes in the fair value of financial instruments mentioned above. Data shows that 圣贝拉's adjusted net profit successfully turned positive in 2023, achieving 20.77 million yuan, and further grew by over 100% in 2024, reaching 42.25 million yuan ³.

Cash Flow Evidence: More convincing than adjusted net profit is the cash flow generated from operating activities. Data shows that the company has achieved positive operating cash flow for three consecutive years, with 24.11 million yuan, 56.70 million yuan, and 49.08 million yuan in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively ⁷. This eloquently proves that the company's core business is healthy, has "blood-making" ability, and can generate continuous cash inflows to support daily operations and expansion.

In summary, although the label of "continued losses" is technically true, it is highly misleading in substance. 圣贝拉's core business already has profitability and healthy cash flow. The IPO itself is a catalyst to resolve historical accounting issues, and after listing, its financial statements will better reflect its true and improving operating fundamentals.

Balance Sheet Health Check

As of December 31, 2024, the company presents a net liability situation of 1.46 billion yuan on the books ⁷. As mentioned earlier, this is mainly due to financial instruments such as convertible preferred shares being accounted for as liabilities, which is a temporary technical issue that will automatically be resolved after listing.

A positive signal worth noting on the balance sheet is the "contract liabilities" item. As of the end of 2024, this item amounted to 175.5 million yuan ⁷. Contract liabilities mainly refer to payments received in advance from customers for future services (i.e., deposits and prepayments for postpartum packages). This large amount not only locks in the company's future revenue but also provides ample, cost-free working capital, greatly enhancing its financial liquidity and stability.

Key Financial Data Summary

Data Source: ⁷

Analysis of Fund Use

According to the prospectus, the net proceeds from this IPO are expected to be approximately 540 million Hong Kong dollars, and the allocation plan clearly reflects the company's future growth strategy ¹⁷:

About 37% will be used to launch new services and products, focusing on developing the company's elderly care business, retail business, and postpartum rehabilitation services. This reflects the company's determination to build a full lifecycle care ecosystem.

About 29% will be used to expand the postpartum care network, including opening more postpartum centers in existing and new cities, as well as potential industry consolidation.

About 18% will be used for R&D activities, including upgrading IT systems, investing in artificial intelligence (AI), and elderly care service R&D.

About 6% will be used to train professional care personnel to ensure service quality.

About 9% will be used as working capital and for general corporate purposes.

This fund arrangement shows that the company will invest most of its resources in business expansion and new business incubation, in line with its positioning as a growth company.

Part 5: Competitive Moat and Market Positioning

In any rapidly growing industry, fierce competition is inevitable. The long-term value of 圣贝拉 depends on whether it can establish and maintain a sufficiently wide competitive moat.

Peer Benchmarking Analysis: 圣贝拉 vs. 爱帝宫 (0286.HK)

In the Hong Kong stock market, 爱帝宫 is the most direct and only listed comparable company to 圣贝拉, known as the "first stock" of postpartum centers ⁶. However, 爱帝宫 has not been developing smoothly in recent years, with the company losing money for two consecutive years and its stock price once falling to "penny stock" status in 2024, facing operational challenges ⁶. By comparing with 爱帝宫, 圣贝拉's unique advantages can be more clearly highlighted.

Scale and Revenue: In 2023, the revenue scale of the two companies was similar, both around 560 million yuan. However, it is worth noting that 圣贝拉 achieved this revenue with twice the number of stores as 爱帝宫, reflecting significant differences in their single-store models and pricing strategies ⁶. According to the latest data, by the first half of 2024, 圣贝拉's postpartum center revenue has surpassed 爱帝宫, becoming the industry leader ⁴.

Profitability: This is the most core difference between the two. In 2023, 圣贝拉's gross margin was as high as 36.5%, nearly 15 percentage points higher than 爱帝宫 ⁶. This huge gross margin gap is the most intuitive manifestation of 圣贝拉's competitive advantage.

爱帝宫's struggles provide a valuable "reference system" for the market. It shows that the postpartum center industry itself is not an "easy profit" track that can easily make money, as its operation involves high rent, labor, and customer acquisition costs ². In a similar industry environment, 圣贝拉 can achieve a gross margin far exceeding its peers, which is by no means accidental but the result of its comprehensive advantages in brand power, pricing power, and operational efficiency. This 15 percentage point profit difference is the monetization of 圣贝拉's "moat" value, proving the superiority of its business model and providing a solid fundamental support for its relative valuation premium over its peers.

Competitive Landscape Comparison: 圣贝拉 vs. 爱帝宫 (2023 Data)

Note: 爱帝宫's revenue data is sourced from news reports and may slightly differ from the precise value in financial reports. Market value is dynamic data and is for reference only.

Sources of Core Competitive Advantages

Comprehensive analysis shows that 圣贝拉's moat mainly consists of the following aspects:

Top Brand Assets: By binding with luxury hotels, implanting the concept of art therapy, and precise marketing to high-net-worth customers, 圣贝拉 successfully positioned itself as a "Hermès" level existence in the industry, establishing strong brand recognition and premium capability ⁵.

Strategic Property Barriers: As mentioned earlier, its preemptive occupation of top hotel resources in core urban areas constitutes a physical barrier that is difficult for latecomers to overcome ⁶.

Excellent Operational Efficiency: The gross margin far exceeding peers proves its deep skills in cost control, personnel management, and process standardization ⁶.

Strong "Smart Capital" Ecosystem: The company's shareholders and investors are not just financial providers. Tencent's advantages in digital marketing and traffic support ⁴, real estate giants' convenience in property cooperation ⁶, and state-owned background funds' role in local resource coordination ⁸ together form a strong strategic resource network that safeguards the company's development.

Part 6: IPO Issuance and Valuation Analysis

This IPO is not only an important milestone in 圣贝拉's development path but also provides investors with a clear coordinate to assess its intrinsic value.

Issuance Structure

Issuance Overview: 圣贝拉 plans to globally issue 95.42 million shares, with 10% for Hong Kong public offering and 90% for international placement. The issue price is fixed at 6.58 HKD per share, with 500 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately 3,323.18 HKD. The maximum fundraising amount for this IPO is nearly 628 million HKD ¹⁷.

Sponsors: Jointly sponsored by UBS and CITIC Securities, both top investment banks, whose participation itself adds credibility to the issuance ¹⁹.

The Power of the Shareholder Register

When evaluating a company, investors should not only look at its business but also its "circle of friends." 圣贝拉's shareholder and investor lineup is luxurious, which is itself part of its core value.

Pre-IPO Star Shareholders: Tencent holds 11.6%, and Gaorong Capital holds 8.3%, both top internet giants and venture capital institutions in China. In addition, the entry of industrial capital such as Sun Hung Kai, China Life Investment, and Swire Properties also shows the recognition of its model by giants in different fields ⁴.

Strong Cornerstone Investors: The company successfully introduced 7 cornerstone investors, collectively subscribing for approximately 41.46 million USD (about 325 million HKD) of shares, accounting for 51.8% of the total issuance (assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option), locking in more than half of the chips, providing strong support for post-listing stock price stability ³.

More thought-provoking is the strategic synergy behind this investor list. This is not a simple financial investment portfolio but a carefully constructed strategic ecosystem:

$TENCENT(00700.HK) : Can provide massive user data, precise social advertising channels, and digital operation experience, helping 圣贝拉 reduce customer acquisition costs and improve operational efficiency.

$SWIREPROPERTIES(01972.HK) ,$SHK PPT(00016.HK) : As top real estate developers and operators, they can provide key property resource support and cooperation convenience for 圣贝拉's "hotel cooperation" model.

58.com Related Fund GIMM⁸: As one of China's largest life service platforms, 58.com can become an important traffic entry for 圣贝拉 to extend to broader fields such as family care in the future.

Hangzhou State-Owned Background Fund JKKB⁸: 圣贝拉 started in Hangzhou, and the entry of state-owned capital not only represents the recognition and support of the local government but may also provide intangible support in future policy coordination and resource acquisition.

This alliance composed of "smart capital" insures 圣贝拉's key business links (customer acquisition, site selection, government relations), greatly reducing its operational risks, which is its invisible but strong advantage over ordinary competitors.

Valuation Assessment

Market Value at Listing: Based on the issue price of 6.58 HKD per share and considering the total issued shares after listing (approximately 954 million shares), 圣贝拉's total market value at listing is about 6.277 billion HKD.

Valuation Method: Given that the company is still in a net loss stage, the traditional price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) valuation method is not applicable. The most suitable valuation indicator currently is the price-to-sales ratio (P/S).

P/S Calculation: The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 (as of December 31, 2024) is 613.1 million yuan ⁷. Converted at the current exchange rate (approximately 1.09 HKD/CNY), it is about 668 million HKD. Therefore, its P/S based on 2024 historical revenue is approximately

62.77/6.68≈9.4 times. If using another source's 2024 revenue data of 873 million HKD ³, the P/S is approximately

62.77/8.73≈7.2 times.

Reasonableness of Valuation Analysis: Regardless of which caliber is used, a P/S of 7-9 times is absolutely not cheap for a consumer service company. The reasonableness of its valuation depends on whether investors believe it can maintain high growth and high profitability. Compared to 爱帝宫, which has become a "penny stock" with a very low P/S, 圣贝拉's valuation premium is obvious. The support points for this premium are:

Higher Growth Rate: 圣贝拉's revenue growth rate far exceeds the industry average.

Higher Gross Margin: A 15 percentage point gross margin advantage is a direct reflection of its quality and efficiency.

Stronger Brand Moat: Its monopoly position and brand value in the ultra-high-end market.

Broader Imagination Space: Its strategic layout extending from postpartum care to full lifecycle family care.

In addition, market news reveals that its international placement part has recorded several times of oversubscription, attracting many long-term funds, medical funds, and other institutional investors to participate ¹⁶. This indicates that mainstream institutional investors generally recognize its value and future prospects and are willing to pay a valuation premium for its high growth.

Part 7: Key Risks and Mitigation Factors

Any investment decision must be based on a clear understanding of risks. While 圣贝拉 is developing rapidly, it also faces many challenges from macro, industry, and company-specific aspects. The "Risk Factors" section of its prospectus provides a detailed disclosure of this ⁷.

Systemic and Industry Risks

Macro Pressure of Declining Birth Rates: This is the most fundamental long-term risk. Although the company hedges by focusing on high-end and increasing customer unit price, if the number of newborns drops sharply in the future, the demand fundamentals of the entire industry will be impacted ⁷.

Sensitivity to Economic Cycles: Postpartum centers belong to high-end optional consumption. Although its target customers have strong payment ability, in the case of severe macroeconomic recession, even high-net-worth individuals may reduce such non-essential expenditures, thereby affecting the company's business volume ⁷.

Company-Specific Risks

Profitability and Cost Structure: This is the company's core risk. Its light asset model brings high and rigid rental and labor costs. Whether it can continue to dilute costs through refined operations and scale effects in the future and successfully transmit high gross margins to net profits is key to whether its business model can ultimately run through ⁷.

Dependence on Hotel Partners: The company's business is highly dependent on cooperation relationships with a few top hotel groups. If these cooperation agreements cannot be renewed or the hotel side significantly increases rent, it will severely impact the company's operations and costs ⁷.

Regulatory and Compliance Risks: High-end care services are on the borderline between "life care" and "medical services." The company was previously penalized for "practicing medicine without a license" ⁷. In the future, if the government introduces stricter industry entry standards or licensing requirements, it may increase the company's compliance costs and even restrict some of its service content.

Service Quality and Reputation Risks: For a luxury service provider that relies on word of mouth and brand as its lifeline, any serious service quality issue or safety incident can quickly ferment through social media, causing devastating damage to brand reputation ⁷.

Expansion and Management Risks: The company is in a period of rapid expansion, with the number of stores increasing rapidly and international layout already underway. How to maintain unified service standards during rapid expansion, cultivate enough qualified talents, integrate newly acquired centers, and cope with different market cultures and legal environments are all huge tests for the management team ⁷.

Strategic Mitigation of Risks

It is worth noting that 圣贝拉's management is clearly aware of the above risks, and its company strategy is largely designed to mitigate these core risks.

Addressing Single Business Risk: To reduce over-reliance on postpartum care, a low-frequency, one-time consumption, the company actively expands "Yu Jia" family care and "Guang He Tang" retail business and plans to enter the elderly care market, aiming to create a service ecosystem where customers can consume multiple times throughout their lifecycle ⁵.

Addressing Market Narrowness Risk: To avoid hitting the ceiling in the ultra-high-end market, the company launched the "小贝拉" brand, successfully expanding its customer base to a broader affluent class, opening up new growth space ¹⁵.

Addressing Property Resource Risk: To lock in scarce high-end hotel resources, the company introduced top real estate groups at the shareholder level, turning potential suppliers into strategic partners ⁴.

Addressing High Customer Acquisition Cost Risk: The company introduced Tencent as a strategic investor, aiming to leverage its strong data analysis and traffic distribution capabilities to achieve more precise and efficient customer reach ¹⁰.

This layout of turning risk points into strategic focus points demonstrates the management team's high strategic foresight and execution ability. Therefore, investing in 圣贝拉 is, to some extent, a bet on the continued success of this risk mitigation strategy.

Part 8: Final Recommendation and Summary

After a comprehensive in-depth investigation of 圣贝拉's business model, market environment, financial status, competitive advantages, and potential risks, this report draws the following conclusions and investment recommendations.

Core Findings Summary

圣贝拉 is undoubtedly a unique and scarce investment target in China's consumption upgrade field. It brings together many highlights: it is the absolute leader in the rapidly growing high-end segment; it has a proven effective, high-margin, and strong moat innovative business model; its core business is on a profitable track and has healthy operating cash flow; more importantly, it has received unanimous endorsement from China's top strategic and industrial capital.

However, these dazzling halos cannot cover up the challenges it faces. Its IPO valuation is not cheap, reflecting the market's high expectations for its future growth; the continuous net loss history on the books requires investors to have the ability to penetrate financial statements and understand the accounting substance behind them; and the long-term shadow of changes in China's population structure and the uncertainty of high-end consumption being affected by economic cycles also add variables to its future.

Final Recommendation: Cautious Subscription

Considering its huge growth potential and accompanying risks, this report gives a **"Cautious Subscription"** recommendation for 圣贝拉 (02508.HK)'s IPO.

This recommendation is mainly aimed at investors with the following characteristics:

High Risk Tolerance: 圣贝拉 should not be regarded as a value stock seeking stable dividends. It is a pure growth stock, and its stock price may experience significant fluctuations in the initial listing period and for a considerable time in the future.

Long Investment Horizon: Investing in 圣贝拉 is investing in its long-term vision of building a full lifecycle family care ecosystem in China. Its value release requires time and is not suitable for investors seeking short-term trading profits.

Subscribing to 圣贝拉 is essentially a bet based on the following two core judgments:

Macro Judgment: Investors believe that in China, the trends of "consumption upgrade" and "wealth concentration" will have a stronger and more lasting driving force on the high-end maternal and infant and family care segment than the trend of "declining birth rates."

Company Judgment: Investors believe that 圣贝拉's management team can continue to efficiently execute its excellent business model, continuously converting market leadership and brand advantages into tangible and growing shareholder returns.

Its strong cornerstone investor lineup and hot international placement situation provide a certain safety cushion and market confidence for this IPO. For investors who meet the above conditions, considering 圣贝拉 as a configuration in the high-risk, high-growth part of their investment portfolio is a strategic choice worth serious consideration.