[HK IPO Subscription] Geek+ -W Subscription Strategy
1. Basic Information
$GEEKPLUS-W(02590.HK), founded in 2015 and headquartered in Beijing, is the world's largest provider of AMR solutions for warehouse fulfillment, offering a full range of logistics robotics solutions, including shelf-to-person, bin-to-person, pallet-to-person, sorting, material handling, and unmanned forklifts.
Geekplus provides a series of AMR solutions aimed at empowering warehouse fulfillment and industrial handling scenarios, improving supply chain efficiency while reducing reliance on manual labor. The company has delivered solutions in over 40 countries and regions worldwide.
2. IPO Information
Company Name & Code: Geekplus-W (02590.HK)
IPO Price: 16.8K HKD
Minimum Investment: 3,393.89 HKD (1 lot = 200 shares)
IPO Period: June 30 to July 4, closing this Friday
Allotment Announcement: July 8
Listing Date: July 9
Shares Issued: 140 million shares, accounting for 10.80% of total shares
Market Cap: 21.833 billion HKD
Greenshoe: Yes
Cornerstone Investors: 4 cornerstone investors subscribed to 30.39% of the offering. The lineup is decent, including the Xiongan New Area Administrative Committee and Prudential.
Sponsors: Morgan Stanley and CICC. Morgan Stanley's sponsored projects this year have not seen a single first-day decline, while CICC's performance has been average—a mixed bag.
3. Fundamental Analysis
In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately 1.452 billion yuan, 2.143 billion yuan, and 2.409 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 28%. During this period, net losses were -1.567 billion yuan, -1.127 billion yuan, and -832 million yuan, respectively.
Overall, Geekplus has shown steady revenue growth over the past three years, with narrowing net losses.
According to the IPO prospectus, the company is already the world's largest provider of AMR solutions for warehouse fulfillment and has maintained this leading position for six consecutive years.
The company has the broadest industry coverage in the global AMR market and is also the largest AMR solution provider in e-commerce, fast-moving consumer goods, and third-party logistics.
As of December 31, 2024, Geekplus has delivered approximately 56,000 AMRs to over 40 countries and regions, capturing a 9.0% market share in the global warehouse fulfillment AMR solutions market.
4. Subscription Strategy
1. The company operates in a promising industry, with decent fundamentals and improving profitability trends...
2. It has a greenshoe and cornerstone investors subscribing to 30%. Sponsors CICC and Morgan Stanley are decent... Among Geekplus's early shareholders, the lineup is impressive, including Ant Group, Gaorong Capital, Morgan Stanley, Hefei State-Owned Assets, Yili, Haier, and Intel...
4. Geekplus was valued at 15 billion yuan in its last funding round in 2021. The current market cap is 21.8 billion HKD (19.8 billion yuan), a 32% increase in valuation over four years—acceptable.
5. There are several robotics concept companies listed in Hong Kong. Horizon Robotics has a market cap of 90.09 billion HKD and a P/S ratio of 35.5x, while Ubtech has a market cap of 36.62 billion HKD and a P/S ratio of 26.6x. Geekplus's P/S ratio is only 8x—doesn't that seem cheap?
6. Currently, the margin financing multiple is only 7x, expected to exceed 15x. With so many new listings, funds are scattered. The first-hand winning rate is estimated at 80%. Er Gou plans to apply for multiple lots with cash.
PS: Er Gou has been quite aggressive lately. Conservative players may choose to be cautious.
Subscription Rating: 6/10 (9-10: All-in with margin, 7-8: Some margin, 6: Opportunistic, 5: Skip it).
This is just Er Gou's personal strategy and does not constitute investment advice...
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