Ask yourself, is it ability?

Everyone's returns in 2025 should be pretty good, whether in US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, or A-shares.

In July, my public account had a monthly return of -2.61%, though it once reached over 20% mid-month. So far, it's the only month in the red.

At that time, I was researching stablecoins, and coincidentally, CRCL's trades went smoothly, even turning costs negative. I got a bit overconfident and started exploring stocks related to the crypto space, venturing into areas I didn’t fully understand.
 

For individual stocks, my risk control is usually a 5%-10% position. This account bought several crypto-related stocks to diversify, but they were all bought at relatively high points, dragging down the returns.

At the beginning of August, I reflected on those trades.

To sum it up in a few words: skill, luck, greed, and panic!

Sometimes, it's easy to mistake luck for skill. It’s hard to distinguish between the two.

Dazhuang bought a piece of raw jade for 200 yuan at a street stall. When it was cut open, it revealed a vibrant green jadeite, which he sold to a jade shop for 200,000 yuan, making a huge profit.

Some say Dazhuang was lucky to buy the raw jade for just 200 yuan.

But that’s not the point. The real luck was finding a piece undervalued by the vendor and a shop willing to pay 200,000 yuan for it.

If Dazhuang could read the jade’s surface patterns, knew which mines produced high-quality stones, and which shops were in need of such jadeite, his success at the street stall would just be a matter of time.

Even though Dazhuang tells everyone he was just fortunate, this is actually skill.

The stock market is the same. Some people spend countless 200 yuan and might stumble upon a jadeite by chance; others calculate odds and probabilities, spending just a few 200 yuan to find one!

The key lies in your mindset.

If you treat it like a casino, betting on rises and falls by intuition, leaving wins and losses to fate, the outcome will be unpredictable. But if you treat it as an investment, you must follow its rules, study industry logic, and develop the ability to calculate odds—only acting when the probability of profit is high.

Of course, even skilled investors encounter bad luck—market volatility or sudden policy changes can lead to short-term underperformance.

But with solid skills, once luck aligns, returns will snowball uncontrollably.

In investing, skill determines the floor, and luck determines the ceiling. An eagle may occasionally fly low, but no matter how hard a chicken flaps, it can’t reach an eagle’s height.

The gap in foundational skills predetermines different ceilings.

May all friends who read this eventually find their own jadeite!

Now, let’s talk about Hong Kong IPO subscriptions. Zhonghui Biotech’s gray market trading starts today. This stock was manipulated, leading to a very low allocation rate—only the top 6 tiers in the B group secured one lot, with the highest tier getting 1+1.

I didn’t write about this stock publicly because Hong Kong IPOs often involve backroom deals, especially for new listings under 7-8 billion market cap, like Zhonghui. Their post-listing performance isn’t driven by fundamentals but by non-market-driven issuance, making fundamental analysis meaningless.

From the start, this stock was set up for manipulation, and I knew it was almost certain.

Some information must remain undisclosed before listing, shared only in private circles. I can’t say too much, or it would complicate things. But now, with gray market trading starting, silence is no longer needed.

The gray market could double right away. The allocation rate was too low, and many want to scoop up shares. My allocation was below expectations—only one lot at the top tier. I’m also ready to buy if given the chance.

But with such stocks, buying is easy; timing the exit is hard. Successful purchases can yield excess returns, but the risks are much higher than IPO subscriptions.